The Padres and Marlins enter the final game of their three-game series on Wednesday. The matchup features two big-name pitchers who are struggling in 2025.
Dylan Cease will face off against Sandy Alcantara with the teams the first two games of the series.
The Padres are -144 moneyline favorites, and the Marlins are +118 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Padres vs. Marlins matchup.
Padres vs. Marlins prediction
Cease vs. Alcantara would have been a must-watch matchup in 2022. The former White Sox ace finished second in the AL Cy Young voting, while Alcantara won the NL Cy Young that year.
Neither pitcher is close to that level of dominance in 2025, however. Cease has a 4.64 ERA through 108.2 innings pitched. He’s coming off a fourth-place NL Cy Young finish last year, but he hasn’t found his footing this season.
Meanwhile, Alcantara is especially struggling in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. He has a 7.14 ERA through 97 innings and has allowed at least four earned runs in 12 of 19 starts.
It should be an offense-heavy game from both sides, unless one of the former aces finds his former self. Or, it’s possible the offense doesn’t show up at all. The first two games of the series have been low scoring with a 2-1 first game and 4-3 second game.
Padres vs. Marlins pick, best bet
Although the starting pitching matchup may lead to an influx of runs, the Padres’ bullpen should be able to keep things from getting out of hand. San Diego has the best reliever ERA in the majors, so if Cease exits early, there’s a good core behind him to handle the Marlins.
Miami doesn’t have as strong of a bullpen, ranking 19th in reliever ERA. Still, it’s unlikely that the Padres will tact on that many runs to begin with. The team is not scoring much recently. San Diego has scored two and three runs in the past two games against the Marlins.
Even with two struggling pitchers, it seems that the offenses may not be explosive enough to surpass 8.5. I’m betting the under for this game, even if it seems a bit bizarre.