This is the second game of a three-game series in Washington between the Nationals and visiting Cincinnati Reds.
Chase Burns is scheduled to pitch for Cincinnati while Brad Lord is slated to start for Washington.
Reds at Nationals prediction, preview
Chase Burns has hit the tails, middle, top and bottom of the entire spectrum in only 16 innings. The ERA is 6.19 but the FIP is 4.09. He averages 98 mph on the fastball and is boasting a 33.8% strikeout rate, but the walk rate is 12.2%. The BABIP is .378 and the strand rate is only 59.6%, but the hard hit rate is 52.5% and the barrel rate is 10%. Whew. I’m exhausted. He’s still only 22 years old, though, and has the draft capital and pedigree, so there’s a good chance he figures it out. It’s likely just a matter of when, not if.
In his debut, Burns went five innings, struck out eight and allowed three earned runs. In his second start, he got blasted for five earned runs in 0.1 innings. He bounced back with seven strikeouts in 4.2 innings while allowing only one earned run in his third start. In the most recent outing, Burns went six innings, struck out 10 and allowed two earned runs. This will be the first time facing Washington this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Nationals have struck out at the 27th-highest rate while having the 23rd-best ISO. The wOBA is 24th-best in MLB.
Brad Lord has been a savior for many on the fantasy streets. In his first 65 MLB innings, Lord has posted a 3.46 ERA, which is supported by the 3.57 FIP. He averages 95.2 mph on the fastball with a 9.9% swinging strike rate. The average exit velocity is 88.8 mph, the barrel rate is only 4.8% and the hard hit rate is 40.7%. The strikeout rate is only 20.7% but he’s only allowed five home runs.
Lord has been split neutral while he’s pitched slightly better on the road. Four of the five home runs have been served up at home. Lord opened the season in the bullpen then started six games. Since then, he hasn’t pitched more than two innings in any outing.
The Reds have struck out at the sixth-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 13th in ISO. The wOBA is 12th-best.
As for bullpens, Cincinnati has the 26th-lowest FIP while Washington has the 30th-lowest.
Reds at Nationals pick, best bet
I continue to believe in Burns. And I have no faith in the Nationals pitching.
