Games in July don’t get much bigger than this.
With a 42-21 record in their last 63 contests, the Blue Jays have shot up the standings in the American League East and now sit with a three-game lead over the Yankees entering play on Monday. Funnily enough, that’s exactly who the team will welcome into Rogers Centre for a three-game set this week.
If this feels like deja vu, you’re not wrong. These two squads squared-off in Toronto less than three weeks ago, with the Blue Jays dominating the series and emerging with a four-game sweep.
Will New York get its revenge this evening and tighten the gap in the division? Let’s preview this huge matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
Toronto tied a franchise record with its 10th straight win at home on Sunday. If the team is going to push that streak to 11, it’ll need a vintage performance from Kevin Gausman. While the 34-year-old’s underlying numbers look much better in 2025 than they did in 2024 — namely a 12.5% swinging strike rate — Gausman has been very inconsistent this season and that’s translated to an underwhelming 4.19 ERA and a 3.93 xERA over 109.2 innings. However, if there is a reason for a slight bit of optimism on Monday, it’s that the veteran RHP will be pitching on extended rest. It’s only happened three times in 2025, but when Gausman’s had the chance to start with six or more days off in between, he’s managed a 2.33 ERA and a 0.57 WHIP.
That said, this is an incredibly difficult matchup and it’ll be the third time that New York has seen Gausman so far this season. The Yankees enter play with league-best marks in ISO (.199), wOBA (.341) and wRC+ (120), which is primarily the reason that the team leads the AL in run differential by as much as they currently do. At the same time, the Blue Jays lead MLB in batting average (.271), wOBA (.337) and wRC+ (116) since the beginning of May, so it’s not like Toronto is dramatically out-classed by its division rival. This will be just as tough a matchup for Carlos Rodon.
In year three of his massive $162 million contract, Rodon has finally started living up to expectations. Across 119.2 innings of work in 2025, the southpaw possesses a 3.08 ERA and a 3.11 xERA. The case could be made that Rodon has gotten a little lucky, as his .226 opponent BABIP is by far the lowest mark among all qualified starters in baseball; but Rodon is also striking out more opponents (28.2%) and allowing fewer home runs per nine (1.13) than he ever has in pinstripes. Rodon’s handedness feels like a positive in this matchup, too. The Blue Jays utilize a few platoons and I think we can all agree that Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes are more dangerous to an opposing pitcher than the likes of Leo Jimenez and Myles Straw. This is where Toronto really misses the bat of Anthony Santander (shoulder).
Blue Jays vs. Yankees pick, best bet
Best Bet: Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Rodon has gone under this line in five of his last seven starts, including an outing against the Blue Jays back on June 30. Toronto owns the lowest strikeout rate in MLB (17.5%).
Strong Lean: Aaron Judge 2+ Total Bases (+100)
There’s some risk here, as the Jays have been very aggressive in intentionally walking Judge in the past, but the All-Star has six career home runs off Kevin Gausman — the most the RHP has surrendered to one player.
