It’s all gas, no brakes for Major League Baseball coming out of the All-Star break with another 30-team all-play this Monday night. Five games start just before 7:00 p.m. ET and 10 games make up the main MLB DFS slate, but for home run props, all 30 teams are in play with some great matchups to consider and break down as we search for some smashable matchups this Monday night. Let’s look at some of my top home run props of the day and break down the environments, matchups, splits and current form that make them good plays to consider. Monday’s top home run props are from Jose Ramirez, George Springer and Mickey Moniak.
Just a quick reminder before we point to the flagpole and call our shots for Monday night–all home run props are, by nature, long-shot bets. Even the best home run hitters can’t count on going deep in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, there’s never much certainty even if every single factor seems to indicate a home run is coming up. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on due to their extreme volatility.
What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do hit. It also makes sense to blend these home run props with other picks in SGPs or parlay plays. I also like to play them at a small unit size in round robins, which boosts their ceiling even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Monday night.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jose Ramirez to record 1+ home runs (+390)
The value here is a surprise to me, since Ramirez has been so locked in at the plate lately and has a good matchup at home against Tomoyuki Sugano. Ramirez and the Guardians have bounced back from their 10-game losing streak by going 8-2 in their last 10 games.
Ramirez has six homers in his 13 games since July 4 and has gone 13-for-46 (.283) with a .451 wOBA over that stretch. While his batting average is much higher against lefties, most of the veteran switch-hitter’s power has actually come against righties like Sugano this season.
He has hit 15 of his 19 homers against righties, including his most recent blast from Saturday against Luis Severino:
Sugano is 7-5 in his 18 games with a 4.44 ERA, 5.17 FIP and an 11.3% barrel rate against him. He has given up 19 homers, and 12 of those have been to lefties, who have a .349 wOBA against him.
Ramirez is a nice option from the early games, especially since he comes just under +400 coming into the day.
George Springer to record 1+ home runs (+450)
Springer dingers have come back into style in Toronto this season, and the veteran’s resurgence has been a huge part of the Blue Jays climbing into the top spot in the AL East. I included Springer’s teammate Davis Schneider in my top MLB DFS bargain plays of the day, but for home run props, I’m rolling with Springer.
The Blue Jays have a tough matchup against lefty Carlos Rodon, but Springer has had success against the veteran lefty in the past, going 5-for-24 with a pair of home runs.
Springer has 17 homers on the season and six already in July, including this blast from Sunday.
Of his 17 homers, 11 have come at home, where he is hitting .300 with a .410 wOBA, and he has hit six of those homers (35%) against lefties, even though he only has 27% of his plate appearances on that side of the split.
Springer and the Jays made a very loud statement in their last series against the Yankees, and they’ll be looking to back that up in this week’s matchup north of the border.
Mickey Moniak to record 1+ home runs (+360)
At Coors Field, the Rockies welcome in the Cardinals for a new series to start the week, and they’ll take on top prospect Michael McGreevy, who has a 4.22 ERA, a 53.0% hard-hit rate against and a 1.03 WHIP in 21 1/3 innings in the majors this season. McGreevy has given up two homers on the season, and lefties have one of those homers with a .260 batting average and .312 wOBA.
The matchup is a fine one, but the main reason I like Mickey Moniak against Michael McGreevy in Monday’s home run props (mmm, mmm good!), is that Moniak has been swinging a hot stick and flourishing at Coors Field, especially over the last month.
Moniak was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, but it has taken him a while and a few stops to really find his groove. He has 14 homers on the year, and nine of those long balls have come in his last 27 games. Over that span, he’s hitting .368 with a .508 wOBA and a 48.4% hard-hit rate.
He smashed his 14th homer of the year on Sunday against Joe Ryan for the Rockies’ only run:
Nine of Moniak’s 14 homers have come at Coors Field, where he has a .418 wOBA, and 13 of his 14 homers have come against righties, against whom he has a .369 wOBA. He’ll be on the strong side of both those splits against McGreevy, so he should bring very nice potential value at +360 for his home run props to start the week.
