The Los Angeles Dodgers started the second half of the season right where they ended the first half: getting swept by the Milwaukee Brewers. Now the losers of 10 of their last 12 games, the Dodgers’ lead atop the NL West is down to 3.5 games. Los Angeles will hope to bounce back in a three-game home set against the Minnesota Twins.
For tonight’s 10:10 p.m. ET series opener, the Dodgers will start Shohei Ohtani against Minnesota’s David Festa.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
Getting swept wasn’t Los Angeles’ ideal way to start to the second half, as the Dodgers’ offense and pitching staff both had strong games but never clicked at the same time. Dave Roberts has been experimenting with his squad, sitting Mookie Betts on Saturday before hitting him leadoff on Sunday, and none of it worked: Betts is down to just a .684 OPS, the worst mark of his career by more than 100 points. The Twins, meanwhile, continued to struggle with their pitching in a three-game road series loss to the Colorado Rockies, giving up 17 runs to the league’s worst team. At least their offense was okay, but that’s to be expected at Coors Field.
For Los Angeles, the main question is how long Ohtani will pitch as he continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery. The 31-year-old tossed three innings in his most recent start, the first time this season that he has done so, and in his last eight innings, he’s only given up three hits and no runs while striking out 10 and walking two. His fastball has regularly sat north of 100 miles per hour, and he’d rank in the top quartile in all but three Statcast categories if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify. So it’s probably fair to expect three good-to-elite innings from Ohtani before Roberts turns to his mediocre bullpen.
Festa is a more traditional starter than the rehabbing Ohtani, regularly throwing at least 80 pitches, but that doesn’t mean he’s better than the Dodgers starter. Though he has settled down in his last three starts after giving up 12 hits and eight runs in just 4.2 innings against the Brewers on June 22, Los Angeles should still have a good chance of putting up some damage. In particular, Festa ranks in just the 15th percentile in barrel rate, a stat in which the Dodgers rank seventh. The 25-year-old has also pitched to a 6.63 ERA on the road so far this season, and even after its recent slump, Los Angeles has easily the league’s best offense at hitter-friendly Dodger Stadium.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1 (-132)
If the Dodgers can’t get something going this week with Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow on the mound, that would be pretty concerning. Minnesota’s pitching staff has had a 4.97 ERA since May 18, which would be the league’s fourth-worst mark across a full season.
Strong Lean: Andy Pages 1+ Home Runs (+300)
Festa has given up pulled fly balls at a below-average rate, and though he’s given up a modest seven homers this season, 14 of his opponents’ hits would’ve gone out at Dodger Stadium, which has been the league’s most homer-friendly this season. Pages also has reverse splits, with a slugging percentage 54 points higher against righties than lefties.
