On Monday afternoon, the San Diego Padres travel to the Sunshine State for a duel against the Miami Marlins at 6:40 p.m. EST. Today’s action kicks off a three-game series and actually brings an underrated matchup to the table between the star talent on the Padres’ roster and a sneaky-good Marlins squad that puts up a surprising fight on most nights.
Here’s a Marlins vs. Padres prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday evening’s action.
Marlins vs. Padres prediction, preview
The 46-52 Marlins aren’t a team one may consider for the playoff race, but these fish have actually emerged as winning team over the past month. Since June 21, Miami boasts a 16-8 record and has only lost back-to-back games once. They just took two of three games over the Kansas City Royals coming out of the All-Star break, so there’s some fresh momentum on their side as well.
Over the last 30 days, the Marlins rank eighth in AVG, 12th in OPS and sixth in runs. That final statistic puts them over contenders like the Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers and even Los Angeles Dodgers during that span, so this hot streak certainly means Miami are capable of holding their own even against top talent. A fantastic season by Kyle Stowers with a .931 OPS and 21 homers leads the charge for the Marlins’ batting order while Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez have excelled over this sustained run, each with an OPS of .818 and .857. The pitching staff still comes in at 24th in ERA and 22nd in WHIP over this span, so they’re riding the offense to wins. It’s working though, so watch for them to make this a competitive affair tonight.
The Padres aren’t an easy opponent, however. They’re 54-45 on the year and won two of three against the Washington Nationals coming out of the break, including a blowout win in which they posted eight runs on MacKenzie Gore in just 2.1 innings.
Unlike in years past, San Diego succeeds primarily through their pitching prowess at fifth in ERA and ninth in WHIP over the full season’s sample while also striking out the 10th-most batters. The offense looks less impressive at 16th in AVG, 23rd in OPS and 24th in runs scored overall. If you look at their 30-day numbers as we did for the Marlins, the Padres have actually scored the fewest runs in baseball over that span. However, they did look quite good during their last series and look to carry that momentum forward tonight. With Manny Machado in the midst of an excellent campaign as usual and Fernando Tatis Jr. posting respectable (if not a bit lower than expected) numbers, bettors can’t count out the Padres.
Marlins vs. Padres pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Marlins as -137 favorites on the Moneyline at home. The Padres come in as +113 underdogs in this one with the run total set at eight.
DraftKings Network just introduced a new probable pitchers page to track daily starter matchups, so be sure to check that out ahead of the game! This evening, Marlins star Eury Perez (3.18 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 35 SO) takes on the Padres’ Randy Vasquez (3.80 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 50 SO).
This matchup looks like one that bettors should try and avoid overthinking. The San Diego order deploys more top-end star power, but they’ve largely underperformed this year and may struggle against Perez, the far better hurler between tonight’s starters. Additionally, Vasquez’s savant marks show he’s in the 30th percentile or below in most advanced metrics besides average exit velo and hard-hit percentage, so he’s a guy Miami’s surprisingly-potent offense can rack up runs against.
Again, don’t overthink this one and roll with the Marlins on the Moneyline.
Best bet: MIA Marlins ML (-137)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
