Four years ago, you wouldn’t want to touch a Zack Wheeler vs. Walker Buehler matchup from a home run prop betting perspective. However, this evening is a different story — as least as it pertains to Buehler. The 30-year-old has struggled in his time with the Red Sox and now he’ll be asked to shut down a Phillies’ lineup that is full of powerful bats.
Will he do it? Probably not. With that in mind, here’s a home run pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for each team in tonight’s tilt between Boston and Philadelphia.
Red Sox vs. Phillies Home Run Prop Bet Picks
Bryce Harper 1+ Home Run (+340)
The smart thing to do would just be to take Kyle Schwarber (+275), but where’s the fun in that? Harper is at least heating up over the past few weeks, slashing .320/.414/.700 with a .380 ISO in the month of July. It’s also not like he’s suddenly just forgotten how to hit for power, as Harper still owns a 94th percentile expected wOBA (.394) and an 87th percentile hard hit rate (50.7%). The home runs are coming. I swear. As mentioned above, it’s been a rough 2025 for Buehler, and LHBs have been the veteran’s biggest challenge. Entering this evening’s action, left-handed hitters are batting .324 off Buehler with a .386 wOBA. Overall, Buehler’s simply conceding an eye-popping 1.96 home runs per nine after surrendering 1.91 home runs per nine in 2024. Woof.
Roman Anthony 1+ Home Run (+600)
Generally speaking, you’re not picking against Zach Wheeler for home run props all that often. Still, it’s not like the 35-year-old is perfect. Since the beginning of last season, Wheeler has given up 33 long balls and 66.7% of those have been hit by left-handed opponents. In fact, while RHBs have mustered only 0.65 home runs per nine off the NL Cy Young favorite in that span, LHBs are going deep 1.17 times per nine. That’s not nothing. Let’s also not forget that Wheeler won’t be facing the Red Sox alone on Monday. The Phillies will have to turn to their bullpen eventually — a unit that is conceding the sixth-most opponent home runs per nine in MLB (1.23). All that is enough to make me take notice of an asset like Roman Anthony. The top prospect has just two home runs to his name at the big league level, but he’s also sporting a 93.8 mph average exit velocity and a 55.3% hard hit rate. The long balls will come soon. Maybe even tonight.
