Every MLB game between two teams in the playoff race means more at the moment. There are fewer than two weeks left before the trade deadline, and many things will change before then. The Philadelphia Phillies and Boston Red Sox will be two oft-mentioned names before the deadline passes.
Philly is in a heated race for the NL East and the top overall seed in the National League. It’s expected to be major buyers at the deadline, and every win or loss changes the calculus. The same is exponentially true for the Red Sox. Holding the last spot in the AL Wild Card race, they teeter on a knife-edge of buying and selling. After the Rafael Devers trade, more moves are on the way. These games will decide what those moves look like.
The Phillies are -205 moneyline favorites at home on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Red Sox are +166 road underdogs. The total is set at 8.5 runs. Let’s go ahead and dig into a prediction for this Phillies vs. Red Sox contest.
Phillies vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
There is a definite gap between these two teams. That gap is only exacerbated by the pitching matchup.
Cristopher Sánchez has been one of the best starters in the MLB this season. His 2.50 ERA across 115 innings is backed up by an elite ground ball rate and low barrel rate. His three-pitch mix is rare for a starter, but the sinker-slider-changeup mix has proven extremely effective. Keeping the ball on the ground plays well against a Red Sox lineup leading the majors in doubles, in addition to an above-average home run total.
Sox starter Richard Fitts doesn’t have the same bona fides as Sánchez. The rookie has induced a lot of swings and misses, but that’s where the good news ends. His 4.81 xERA points to the hard contact he’s allowing, surrendering seven home runs in 33 innings. Against a Phillies lineup full of power, things could get ugly for Fitts.
An even pitching matchup would favor the Phillies, despite their subpar bullpen. The gap on the mound makes me extremely confident in a Philly win. Though it may not be as wild as Monday’s win.
Phillies vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
With this disparity on the bump, I see a grave day for the Red Sox. Sánchez matches up well against any lineup; the extra base-happy Red Sox give him an extra edge. And Fitts’ flaws are easily exploitable by the Phillies. Unless we get another bullpen meltdown from Philly, this should be a convincing win.
