With the All-Star break behind us, the first series of the ceremonial second half for most teams will come to a close this Sunday. After 10 games in the early afternoon, five games start at 3:10 p.m. ET or later. From those 10 teams on the board, there are some strong home run props to consider if you are looking to flex with a few long-shot plays for later on Sunday afternoon. After taking a look at the environments, matchups, splits and current form, my top home run props for Sunday are from Willi Castro, Eugenio Suarez and Riley Greene.
Just a quick reminder as we dive in, all home run props are, by nature, long-shot bets. Even the best home run hitters can’t count on going deep in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to check out, there’s no certainty even if every single factor seems to indicate a long ball is ready for launch. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on due to their extreme volatility.
What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do hit. It also makes sense to use these home run props with other picks in SGPs or parlay plays. I usually also like to play them at a small unit size in round robins, which boosts their ceiling even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your batters bash one, so get those QTs and RTs ready on X!
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Sunday night.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Willi Castro to record 1+ home runs (+475)
Even though he’s playing at Coors Field, we get pretty favorable odds on Castro this Sunday afternoon. Castro and the Twins have lost the first two games of the series with the Rockies, and Castro smashed this homer on Friday night in the loss.
Castro has hit three homers in his last eight games and is hitting .250 in July with a .361 wOBA and a 50% hard-hit rate. He’s batting second on Sunday against German Marquez in what should be a good matchup for him and has been hitting the ball better than his overall numbers for the season show.
Marquez has a 5.57 ERA, 4.37 FIP and 12 homers allowed in his 19 starts. Only five of those homers have come at Coors Field, but that’s likely because he only has 39 1/3 home innings this season, compared to 56 innings on the road. Since Castro is a switch-hitter, he’ll face Marquez from the left side, and lefties have eight homers with a .381 wOBA against him on the year. Lefties have been even better against Marquez at Coors, where they have a .413 wOBA.
Twins lefties should have a favorable spot in Denver, and don’t forget to include Castro in that mix for his home run props, especially with his odds at almost +500.
Eugenio Suarez to record 1+ home runs (+285)
Another nice option to consider for home run props this Sunday afternoon is Diamondbacks slugger Eugenio Suarez, who has been one of the hottest names headed into the MLB Trade Deadline.
He showcased plenty of power potential this season, with 33 homers on the season, including eight in his last 16 games. During that span, he has a 52.5% hard-hit rate and .419 wOBA, and on the season, he has a .383 wOBA to go with a .254 batting average.
He hit two more homers on Saturday to power the Diamondbacks past the Cardinals.
On Sunday, he’ll take on Miles Mikolas, against whom he has gone 7-for-17 (.412) with a pair of homers in their previous meetings. Mikolas gave up six home runs in his last road start at Wrigley Field against the Cubs, and he has allowed 27 runs in 37 2/3 innings over his last seven starts with 12 home runs and a 15.2% barrel rate against him.
Suarez has hit 21 of his 33 homers at home and 23 of his 33 homers against righties, so getting him at Chase Field against Mikolas is a strong option to consider in Sunday’s home run props.
Riley Greene to record 1+ home runs (+360)
The Tigers and Rangers clash on Sunday Night Baseball, but the pitching matchup has changed a little bit, opening up some value in the home run props. Originally, Tarik Skubal was set to face Nathan Eovaldi, but Eovaldi had to be scratched with a back issue and was replaced by lefty Jacob Latz.
Latz has been solid for the Rangers, working mostly out of the bullpen with a 3.00 ERA and 3.49 FIP in 48 innings. He has worked around three innings in each of his last three outings and will likely be around that number again on Sunday, although he did stretch out to six innings in a spot start earlier this season. He has allowed four homers on the year, two to lefties Jac Caglianone and Rafael Devers and two to righties in Julio Rodriguez and Alex Call.
Even though Latz holds lefties to a low batting average, the Tigers’ lefties aren’t a stay-away play, and the matchup actually seems to raise the odds a little bit for Greene, who has 25 homers on the season.
Greene homered on Saturday against the Rangers for the Tigers’ only run in their 4-1 defeat, and he has eight homers in his 16 most recent games, dating back to the end of June. He’s only hitting .226 over that span but has a 17.9% barrel rate.
All but two of Greene’s homers have come off righties, so he’ll be an even better option after Latz departs. However, he does have 15 homers and a .403 wOBA on the road, so he still brings a good ceiling and strong value in this matchup on Sunday Night Baseball as the Tigers look to snap out of their mini-funk, during which they have dropped six straight games.
