Despite trading away Rafael Devers, the Red Sox are just five games back from the AL East lead. This is a team capable of sneaking into the postseason and making some noise with a young core.
That being said, the second half of the season marks a difficult stretch. Boston lost two of three to the Cubs and now face the Phillies and Dodgers in back-to-back series.
Philadelphia is hosting this three-game set and is a -207 moneyline favorite for Monday’s contest on DraftKings Sportsbook. Boston is +168 and the game total is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Monday’s Red Sox vs. Phillies matchup.
Red Sox vs. Phillies prediction
Just by looking at the standings, this may seem like a relatively even matchup. The Phillies are 56-43, while the Red Sox are 54-47. That being said, the gap gets quite large once you consider the pitching matchup.
Zack Wheeler is on the mound for Philadelphia, while Walker Buehler is pitching for Boston. Wheeler is one of the best starters in the majors, while Buehler is barely holding on to a rotation spot. The latter owns a 6.12 ERA through 78 innings this season, but he has only allowed three and two earned runs in his past two starts.
It’s not impressive, but it’s somewhat positive in what has been a disastrous season for the former Dodgers right hander.
Although Wheeler has been excellent, his last outing before the All-Star break was porous. He allowed four earned runs and six hits in six innings against the Padres. That shouldn’t happen again as he hasn’t had back-to-back bad starts since April.
Wheeler will take control of this game and start off his second half with a Cy Young-esque performance.
Red Sox vs. Phillies pick, best bet
Was it obvious that I’m siding with the Phillies in this one? I’m not sold on the -207 moneyline since there isn’t enough value for a middle-of-the-season game.
The Phillies’ -1.5 run line is set at -105 value. That’s the target for this matchup. It’s more risk, but there’s actual worthwhile rewards waiting if the Phillies do cover.
Wheeler should have an all-time performance at home, so it’s up to the bats to give some support.