The Guardians have gotten off to a good start following the All-Star break, while the Orioles are falling further down the AL East standings.
Cleveland won two of three against the Athletics, scoring eight runs in both victories. It’s a change of pace for a team that’s typically struggled to score this season. The Orioles, on the other hand, lost two of three to the Rays.
Monday’s matchup marks a new series and the second time these teams face off this year. The Orioles won two of three in April.
The Guardians are -148 favorites on the moneyline, while the Orioles are +122 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Monday’s Orioles vs. Guardians matchup.
Orioles vs. Guardians prediction
The first series of the second half doesn’t mean nearly as much as the entire first half of the season. That’s obvious, but a solid three games could indicate a change of rhythm for a team.
The Guardians scored eight runs in two of the three games against the Athletics, despite averaging 3.74 per game (26th best in MLB). Even though the Athletics are one of the weaker teams in the majors, this is still a notable increase in runs scored.
The Orioles are just like the Athletics as they are one of four teams to allow over 500 runs this season. They’re starting Tomoyuki Sugano on Monday to open the series, which bodes well for the Guardians.
Sugano, a 35-year-old rookie, has been tagged with runs in almost every outing this season. He’s allowed at least three earned runs in six straight starts. After a decent April and May, he’s fallen off as hitters seem to have figured his stuff out.
The Guardians are starting Tanner Bibee, who isn’t having a great season either. He has a 4.29 ERA and 95 strikeouts through 109 innings.
The pitching matchup makes it seem like offense will be plentiful, but it’s a matter if these teams can actually produce.
Orioles vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Neither the Orioles nor the Guardians are a safe bet with how they’ve fared this season. Despite a solid series against the Athletics, the Guardians shouldn’t be trusted so confidently.
Although Cleveland has struggled to score this season, it’s shown some life lately. Pair that with Sugano on the mound, and it may just be the perfect recipe for a great offensive showing. At over 8.5, the total isn’t too high that it’s completely out of reach.
If it’s not Sugano, Bibee could slip up. It’s also possible both starters have poor outings.