Dustin Poirier’s last dance is here! “The Diamond” is facing Max “Blessed” Holloway in his final UFC fight at UFC 318 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Poirier is up 2-0 against Holloway, but with six years since their previous fight, who will come out on top in the trilogy?
Here is my best bet for Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier in the Main Event of 318.
Max Holloway Moneyline (-142)
Holloway has a history of trilogies, as he suffered three defeats against Alexander Volkanovski. But that one was different. Each of the first two fights against Poirier came at a different point in his career. First, he faced him in 2012, when he was 20 years old, in his first UFC bout. Then again, in 2019, Holloway took a fight against Poirier on six days’ notice after Khabib Nurmagomedov was injured. That was Holloway’s first fight in his career at 155 pounds. But that won’t be the cause this time, as Holloway has been preparing to make a full-time move to lightweight after losing to Ilia Topuria in October 2024.
Even though Poirier is being honored in his final fight in his home state, Holloway is still trying to make a run at lightweight gold. Holloway bounced back with a dominant victory following his three previous losses. Even at 36 years old, Poirier proved against Islam Makhachev in his last fight that he is still a dangerous fighter. However, since their previous fight, Holloway has improved. Holloway is 6-4 in that span, as Poirier is 5-4. Holloway has won three of his last four, while Poirier is 2-2 in that period.
Even after losing multiple title fights, Holloway has stayed hungry and has continued to improve as a fighter. Would it be an incredible moment if Poirier won the last fight of his career in his hometown? Yes, it would, but Holloway is just such a tough challenge not only for Poirier but for everyone in the lightweight division.
Holloway is the favorite in this matchup at -135 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and Poirier is +114. In this third fight, Holloway has a lot in his favor. He is three years younger, and although Poirier is always prepared, he still has retirement on the back of his mind. Poirier has nothing to lose in this fight, as it is his final contest to win or lose. Holloway needs to try his best not to get in a war, as that favors Poirier. If he doesn’t, a win is likely for the “Blessed” one, since his movement and all-around striking skillset is on a different level than Poirier’s.
