A noteworthy fight taking place on the Prelims is No. 10 Marvin Vettori vs. No. 11 Brendan Allen in a three-round middleweight bout. Even though both fighters are on a two-fight losing streak, they are still capable of greatness.
Here is my best bet for Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen at UFC 318.
Brendan Allen To Win By Decision (+110)
This matchup is extremely close on paper, with Allen being taller by two inches (6’2″ vs. 6’0″) and having a one-inch reach advantage (75″ vs. 74″). Vettori averages more significant strikes per minute (4.54 vs. 3.55), but Allen is the more efficient striker (53% vs. 46%). On the ground, Allen lands more takedowns per 15 minutes (1.53 vs. 1.51), but Vettori is more accurate (45% vs. 38%).
With all that being said, I favor Allen in this matchup because he is not as far removed from plenty of success in the UFC. Allen won seven straight fights from 2022 to 2024. Vettori had a five-fight win streak from 2019 to 2021, and since then has gone 2-4.
Although four of Allen’s previous five victories have been by submission, Vettori hasn’t been submitted in his career. That is why, instead of getting Allen to win on the moneyline at -185, the better value is to get him to win by decision at +100 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
