Dustin Poirier returns home to New Orleans, Louisiana, for the final fight of his legendary career. He will challenge Max “Blessed” Holloway for the BMF Title at UFC 318 on Saturday, July 19. This event is taking place at the Smoothie King Center and will air live on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Check out my best bets for Saturday’s UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3.
Max Holloway Moneyline (-148)
Although this event was put together to honor Poirier’s career, Holloway needs to win this fight. He has lost twice to Poirier, and although he is the current BMF title holder, Holloway is still chasing Lightweight gold. There are no fairytale endings in combat sports, and Holloway will provide Poirier with a tough test in his final bout.
Holloway and Poirier fought twice, 12 and six years ago. A lot has changed since then. Holloway was 20 years old in their first bout, which was his UFC debut. In their second fight, Holloway, 27, made his 155-pound debut, and the bout was on short notice.
Holloway is a -148 favorite in this bout, with Poirier being +124 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Holloway averages 7.16 significant strikes per minute, which is 1.86 more than Poirier. His striking and defense have both improved a ton since their second meeting, and I believe that will be the difference at UFC 318.
Kevin Holland to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-150)
Holland is a finishing machine and has won six of his previous seven fights via KO/TKO or submission. Even though Holland is known for his striking, he has recently displayed a new and improved wrestling ability. He has won three of his last four fights by submission. He faces Daniel Rodriguez at UFC 318 on Saturday.
Although Holland is a fun fighter and entertaining, he seems to have found a long-term home at 170 pounds. Holland possesses an 81″ standing reach while being 6’3″, which is a seven-inch larger reach than Rodriguez.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Holland is a massive -500 favorite against Rodriguez. The odds being this lopsided is a testament to the growth Hollamnd has made in his career. However, the better value play is to bet on Holland to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission, which is -150.
Daniel Zellhuber to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-115)
Zellhuber returns to the Octagon after a split decision loss to Esteban Ribovics at UFC 306 in September 2024. Before that defeat, he won three straight contests. Now, he is matched up against his most experienced opponent, Michael Johnson.
Johnson, 39, has been in the UFC since 2011 and is 15-15 in the promotion. He has faced tough veterans and champions throughout his career, and although he is getting older, he remains on a two-fight win streak.
With Zellhuber being a -550 favorite, let’s look at a better option to back him in this bout. Ten of Zellhuber’s 15 victories have come via TKO or submission. At 26, he still has a lot of potential and needs a bounce-back victory by finish to continue climbing the lightweight rankings.
