The bottom two teams in the American League East, the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays, certainly hoped for better this year. But there remains a gulf between the two.
At 52-47, the Tampa Bay Rays are squarely in the Wild Card mix, and not entirely out of the divisional race. They’re solid top to bottom, with a deep group of position players and top of the pitching staff. While I don’t expect them to be major buyers at the trade deadline, they’re positioned to chase down a playoff spot as is.
Baltimore must be extremely disappointed with how things are unfolding. They’re 11 games below .500 and well out of the playoff race. With their collection of young talent coming off a 91-win season, it’s a huge disappointment to be out of the race. It remains to be seen how much Baltimore will be selling off in the next two weeks.
The Tampa Bay Rays are -127 moneyline favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at eight runs. Let’s dig into a preview, prediction, and best bet for this Jays-Giants game.
Orioles at Rays prediction, preview
Baltimore’s 2024 trade acquisition, Trevor Rogers, takes the mound on Sunday. After pitching to a 7.11 ERA post-deadline for the Orioles, he’s been resurgent this year across six starts with a 1.53 ERA and 0.821 WHIP. The underlying numbers back up his newfound success.
Tampa’s starter, Ryan Pepiot, has pitched well in his own right. While the FIP doesn’t love him, he pitches deep into games and keeps runners off base at a solid clip. His only bugaboo is the long ball; that may come back to bite him against this Orioles team.
These pitchers are talented, but they’re facing capable offenses. Whoever limits the damage most will come out on top, and my money is on Pepiot here.
Orioles at Rays pick, best bet
The underlying numbers don’t love Pepiot, and he’s going to be vulnerable to the long ball. Baltimore can bash home runs better than most, and that’s going to create problems. But not the way that Tampa can cause issues for Trevor Rogers.
An all-around offense with power, on-base skills, and several good contact hitters, there’s a reason the Rays have been causing problems for teams all year long. I’m expecting a high-scoring contest, one that likely results in a Tampa Bay victory.
