Major League Baseball is back! If you enjoyed the Home Run Derby and the All-Star game swing off, Friday can be a good chance to keep the long balls flying with a few fun home run props. With 14 games under the lights, there are some great spots to target all across the evening slate. After breaking down the environments, matchups, splits and current form, my favorite home run props for Friday are from Oneil Cruz, Harrison Bader and Cal Raleigh.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences—all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the best home run hitters can’t count on going deep in any single contest, meaning home run props are never “safe” picks, even if every single factor seems to indicate a dinger is on deck. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on due to their extreme volatility.
What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do hit. It also makes sense to use these home run props with other picks in SGPs or parlay plays. I also like to play them at small money in round robins, boosting their upside even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters goes yard—get those QTs and RTs ready on X!
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Frida night.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Oneil Cruz to record 1+ home runs (+400)
Cruz put on a show at the Home Run Derby, recording both the longest home run of the day and the highest exit velocity.
He lost in the semifinals to Cal Raleigh, but Cruz definitely brings plenty of power potential after smashing 16 homers in 85 games. He is among the leaders in almost all the contact metrics, with a 57.7% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 96.3 miles per hour.
Cruz will start the ceremonial second half of the season with a matchup against Jonathan Cannon and the White Sox in Pittsburgh. Cruz has hit nine of his 16 homers at home and 15 of his 16 homers against righties. On the other side of the matchup, Cannon has allowed 12 homers, including seven to lefties, who have a .362 wOBA against him, and eight homers in his road starts.
Cruz comes at a pretty nice number at +400, and he is one of my favorite home run props as he returns home and looks to build on his Home Run Derby momentum.
Harrison Bader to record 1+ home runs (+450)
The second option in my home run props comes from the matchup at Coors Field, but I’m dipping deeper into the odds than the obvious options of Byron Buxton (+195) and Hunter Goodman (+235). Instead, I’m rolling with Bader, who was playing well before the break and hit four homers in his seven most recent games, including this walkoff:
Six of his 11 homers this season came in his last 32 games, and he hit .237 with a .321 wOBA over that stretch. He has a .324 wOBA against lefties this season, and has hit four homers in 70 at-bats against southpaws this year.
He’ll face lefty Kyle Freeland, who has given up four homers in his 37 2/3 innings at home this season. Freeland usually does a good job of keeping it in the yard, but the sinker hasn’t been quite as effective this year.
Given how hot he was before the break, Bader comes at a good number for this homer-friendly spot at Coors Field.
Cal Raleigh to record 1+ home runs (+245)
The Home Run Derby champion is back in action, and his home run props are one of my top options of the night since he’ll be in a very favorable matchup against Astros’ lefty Brandon Walter, who has the highest HR/9 of all the starters in action this Friday.
Walter has served up eight homers in seven starts. Righties have hit seven of those eight homers and posted a .322 wOBA against Walter in his 40 2/3 innings over seven starts.
Raleigh obviously brings plenty of power from both sides of the plate. He’s hitting .333 against lefties this year, with 16 of his 38 homers on that side of the split and an impressive .512 wOBA against lefties.
Raleigh at +245 at home on the strong side of his splits feels like a fun way to close out Friday night’s home run props.
