At the All-Star break, some things are familiar. Despite a recent slump, the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers are 58-39, with the best record in the National League and easily the best odds to go back-to-back at DraftKings Sportsbook. They’ll start the second half of the season with a home series against the Milwaukee Brewers, who are 56-40 and swept the Dodgers in Milwaukee shortly before the break.
The series will open with a 10:10 p.m. ET clash tonight. Tyler Glasnow, who recently returned from a two-month absence with shoulder inflammation, will crest the hill for Los Angeles, while the Brewers will start Quinn Priester.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
The Dodgers badly needed the All-Star break after going on a season-long seven-game losing streak shortly before the intermission. Despite having the league’s highest-powered offense for most of the season, Los Angeles has had the league’s second-lowest OPS through the first 12 games of July. This month, even Shohei Ohtani is slashing just .186/.340/.395, and Mookie Betts has just a .616 OPS in a continuation of a miserable season. Teoscar Hernández, too, has just a .509 mark, and Hyeseong Kim’s is .508. Perhaps Betts’ first midseason break in a decade will serve him well, and Hernández smartly opted not to defend his Home Run Derby crown in order to prepare for the second half of the season.
While it won’t be easy for Los Angeles to get back on track against Priester, who’s had a solid 3.55 ERA in 17 appearances (12 starts) this season and has pretty strong breaking stuff, it is better off facing him than Jacob Misiorowski or Freddy Peralta, the latter of whom will toe the rubber on Sunday. Priester might present the Dodgers with a challenge, given that he induces ground balls at a 95th-percentile rate and Los Angeles’ ability to get the ball up is one of its biggest strengths, but he’s given up three or more runs in three of his seven road starts this season. The Dodgers’ main problem is that they whiff at the league’s ninth-highest rate, and hitters have only missed Priester’s stuff 23.2% of the time.
Glasnow, an All-Star last season, is probably a more reliable pitcher, even though he had a pair of horrible outings prior to getting shut down. He returned with a vengeance on July 9 in Milwaukee, throwing five innings of one-run ball, conceding two hits. While he struggled with his control, issuing three free passes, it was a confidence-inducing outing, especially since he managed to throw 85 pitches. I’m not particularly concerned about his walks, given that he had demonstrated above-average command in each of his previous four seasons. Though he’s given up many barrels, the Brewers have produced them at the league’s lowest rate, so Glasnow should perform well tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
Although it’s likely that Los Angeles’ offense will be better than it has been over the last two weeks, both pitchers are capable of producing low-scoring baseball and neither has a major weakness that the opponent is well-suited to exploit. I like the Dodgers to grind out a gritty win.
Strong Lean: Tyler Glasnow U16.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
Los Angeles has been haunted by pitching injuries all season and is finally getting healthy. Given Glasnow’s lengthy injury history, the Dodgers will be cautious. After the break, Los Angeles’ bullpen is well-rested, and Dave Roberts will turn to it to begin the sixth inning.
