The MLB All-Star break festivities are over. It’s time to put the pedal to the metal for the second half of the year. As the trade deadline approaches, every game for teams on the playoff bubble is crucial. We have one such matchup on Friday between the Seattle Mariners and the Houston Astros.
Going into Friday’s contest, Houston leads the AL West over the second-place Mariners by five games. This series could see Houston stretch the lead to eight games, or Seattle narrow it to two. To say this series will help decide the AL West would be an understatement. It’s even more significant for Seattle; a bad series would push them towards the outside of the AL Wild Card picture, and closer to selling at the July 31st deadline.
The Mariners are -137 moneyline favorites at home on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Astros are +112 road underdogs. The total is set at 7.5 runs. Let’s go ahead and dig into a prediction for this Astros vs. Mariners contest.
Astros vs. Mariners prediction, preview
Both teams opted to pass over their top starters and give them extra rest. It speaks to the depth of both rotations that we’re still getting a strong pitching duel.
Luis Castillo takes the mound for the Mariners. The three-time All-Star is consistent if nothing else. He pitches deep into games, maintains an ERA around 3.50, and gives his offense a chance night in and night out. They’ll need him to throw well with lefty Brandon Walter toeing the rubber for Houston. Seattle has not had much success against southpaws this year, and Walter gives away little. His 40/2 K/BB ratio is a true marvel.
This has the feel of a close contest. In their first series, each game was decided by one run. I don’t see that being any different tonight, with runs at a premium. But my gut tells me Seattle comes out with the win here.
Astros vs. Mariners pick, best bet
It’s a low total, but a deserved one. These teams have good offenses, but not spectacular ones. Houston is without Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña, two of their best hitters. And Seattle’s struggles to produce against lefties nerfs their outlook a bit.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see a hot Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh put some dents into Walter’s line. Yet the rookie continues to march on as Houston’s list of injured pitchers piles up. If Castillo can hold his end of the bargain, we’ll have another low-scoring, tight contest on our hands.
