Now that the MLB All-Star Break is over, the games come nonstop until the playoffs arrive. Every game will impact playoff races and the seller-vs-buyer dynamic at the July 31st trade deadline. The Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets are squarely in the National League playoff race, and it feels like everything is on the line.
New York spent a billion dollars to upgrade this roster; most of that went to Juan Soto. It’s paid off, but the Mets still has some work to do. They envisioned a 100-win team, but at least they’re in the mix. The Reds likely feel pleased to be here. At 51-47, they’re on the hunt for a Wild Card berth well ahead of schedule. Filled with young talent, a push at the trade deadline could net them 90+ wins.
The Mets are -181 moneyline favorites at home on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Reds are +148 road underdogs. The total is set at 8.5 runs. Let’s go ahead and dig into a prediction for this Reds vs. Mets contest.
Reds vs. Mets prediction, preview
It’s an interesting matchup of former relievers in this contest. Part of the billion the Mets spent went to Clay Holmes. The two-time All-Star as a reliever was signed with the intent of stretching out as a starting pitcher. It was an interesting risk, and one that has paid off so far. Despite being 30 innings beyond his career high, he’s maintained 3.31 ERA.
Nick Martinez has gone from a starter in the MLB to a starter in Japan, then a reliever back here with the Padres, and back to a starter with the Reds. But it’s been a struggle this season after an elite swingman year in 2024. Martinez holds a 4.78 ERA and has been the only sore spot in a great Reds rotation. With the deadline fast approaching, he’s going to be pitching like his job is on the line.
New York is the superior team, to be sure. The imbalance on the pitcher’s mound makes the Mets an easy choice.
Reds vs. Mets pick, best bet
Cincinnati kicked off the second half with an 8-4 win over the Mets on Friday. It’s time for New York to get its act together for this Saturday matinee. With Holmes on the mound, pitching well, it can put a ton of pressure on Nick Martinez and the Reds. I’m not sure if Cincinnati is prepared for that pressure.
Hitters on the Mets have a career batting average of .310 and an OPS over 1.000 against Martinez. It could be a bloodbath in New York, and not one that Reds fans are going to enjoy.
