This is the opener of a three-game series in Washington between the Nationals and visiting San Diego Padres.
Dylan Cease is scheduled to pitch for San Diego while Michael Soroka should get the nod for Washington.
Padres at Nationals prediction, preview
Dylan Cease has been much better than the 4.88 ERA. The FIP is 3.69, while the BABIP is an elevated .320. The strand rate is also 68.1%. Cease averages 97 mph on the fastball and boasts a 29% strikeout rate. The walk rate is elevated, though, at 8.8%. The swinging strike rate is a whopping 16.1% while the chase rate is 33.5%. Only Tarik Skubal has a higher swinging strike rate. The barrel rate is 10.2%, but the hard hit rate is 40.9%. In 103.1 innings, Cease has allowed 15 home runs.
Cease has pretty much been split neutral with a slight nod towards left-handed batters having a smidge more success.
For all the robust advanced stats, Cease has gotten blown up a lot this season. He’s allowed at least three earned runs 10 times. He has three games with nine, six and six earned runs allowed. In the three starts before the All-Star break, Cease allowed six, four and three earned runs. This will be the first time facing the Nationals this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Nationals have struck out at the 27th-highest rate while having the 21st-best ISO. The wOBA is 23rd-best in MLB.
Michael Soroka has pitched much better than the 5.35 ERA indicates. The FIP is down at 4.11 while the strikeout rate is a healthy 26%. The K-BB% is 19.3%. Digging through the advanced numbers, I don’t understand why the big discrepancy between the ERA and FIP exists. The swinging strike rate is 10% while the barrel rate is 7.1%. The hard hit rate is 41.2%. The HR/FB rate is 13.7%, right at his career average.
Soroka has really struggled against lefties, as the FIP is 5.11 and eight of the 10 home runs have come off their bats. Seven of the 10 home runs have come on the road.
Soroka has allowed more than three earned runs five times. Two of those came in the first two starts of the season, but two starts ago, he allowed seven earned runs against the Boston Red Sox. Soroka has pitched at least six innings four times.
The Padres have struck out at the 28th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 27th in ISO. The wOBA is 24th-best.
As for bullpens, San Diego has the third-lowest FIP, while Washington has the 30th-lowest.
Padres at Nationals Best Bet
The stuff that Cease possesses is so good, but it hasn’t necessarily translated into domination on the mound. I think Washington can get to him. On the flip side, the Padres have been far from world beaters. Give me the home dog.
