Once upon a time, saves were considered the crown jewel of reliever statistics. However, with the rise of modern bullpen strategy, teams are willing to deploy their best arms as setup men. Still, there’s something about a closer that still has weight, even in the age of advanced statistics. After all, the pressure is almost always at its highest during the ninth inning.
Leading baseball in saves depends on a number of different factors. On top of simply pitching well, there needs to be opportunity. A dominant team and a last place cellar dweller won’t find themselves in a save situation very often. The ideal spot is a good, maybe not great, club that needs to eek out plenty of close victories. Perhaps it’s no surprise that Robert Suarez of the Padres currently leads the league with 28 saves. That’s despite San Diego (52-44) only having the National League’s sixth-best record.
Are there any closers that can challenge Suarez? Before the second half gets started, here’s the best saves leader MLB futures bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.
2025 MLB Save Leader prediction, pick
At the moment, Suarez holds -170 odds of leading the league in saves on DraftKings Sportsbook. The 34-year-old hasn’t been spectacular, recording a just-OK 3.54 ERA. Still, his FIP of 2.25 suggests better days are ahead. It helps that an all-in Padres squad is likely to upgrade rather than downgrade at the trade deadline. According to DKSB, the next-most likely saves champ is Josh Hader (+190). Houston’s closer has finished up 25 contests, second-best in baseball. The six-time All-Star has been his normal, dominant self this season. Through 42.2 innings of work, the fireballer owns a stellar 2.53 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 65 strikeouts.
Hader is tied with Kansas City’s Carlos Estevez, currently tied for second in saves with 25. However, the right-hander only has the third-highest odds (+700) at leading the category this season. That makes sense; the Royals (47-50) could be a seller at the trade deadline. While the veteran could find himself dealt to a contender, there’s no guarantee he remains a closer.
The most likely long-shot on the board is Jeff Hoffman (+1600), currently at 22 saves. Toronto’s closer has been a disappointment, notching an unimpressive 5.03 ERA. However, it’s unlikely the front office pivots after signing the 32-year-old to a three-year, $33 million deal last offseason. The Blue Jays are leading the American League, but have a middling run differential of +17. A competitive team that plays plenty of close games? Sounds like a recipe for plenty of second-half saves.
2025 MLB Saves Leader best bet: Josh Hader (+190)
On the shortlist of best current closer, you’d be hard pressed to find someone better than Josh Hader. However, as previously mentioned, talent only gets you so far when it comes to saves. Fortunately, the ninth-year pro is in the perfect spot. The Astros own the American League’s second-best record (56-40). However, they’re only scoring the 15th-most runs per game in baseball (4.35). To make things more enticing, Houston’s remaining opponents have a combined win percentage of .482, second-lowest in baseball. Add it all up, and it’s difficult to ignore Hader at nearly two-to-one odds.
