With the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game complete, it’s time for teams to focus on the second half of the regular season. Franchises need to decide whether they’re buying or selling at the deadline to determine their outlook for the latter portion of the 2025 season.
As for individual players, it’s time to prove that their first half success was not a fluke, or that their struggles were temporary.
One of the major races this year is with the home run total. Cal Raleigh leads the pack with 38 dingers in the first half of the season, with Aaron Judge trailing at 35. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering prop bets for who will lead the majors in home runs at the end of the season.
Below I break down my best bet for which player will be the home run leader at the end of the regular season.
MLB home run leader best bets
The regular season resumes on Friday, July 18 with a full 15-game slate. All teams and players will be active as the home run race continues.
Raleigh leads with 38 home runs, but he’s not the favorite to be the end-of-season home run champ. Judge is expected to surpass him and is the only player with minus odds in this field.
After Judge and Raleigh, Shohei Ohtani is the only player close with odds. Ohtani is +650, while Judge is -135 and Raleigh is +105. The next shortest is Kyle Schwarber with +2500. There’s an even larger gap between Schwarber and Eugenio Suarez at +5500.
Despite Judge and Raleigh being the clear top options, there isn’t a major gap in the actual home run total. Here’s the total home run leaders:
- Cal Raleigh: 38
- Aaron Judge: 35
- Shohei Ohtani: 32
- Eugenio Suarez: 31
- Kyle Schwarber: 30
There’s a lot to consider when making this home run leader bet. History is one of the factors as Judge is the only player in this group to hit 50-plus in at least two seasons. He’s done so three times, and is on pace to do so again barring any injuries.
Between his track record and being only three behind the league-leader is what makes him the favorite. Raleigh, on the other hand, doesn’t have the history behind him. He’s having his best season by far, clearing his career-high in home runs (34) already.
Neither player is my personal pick for the home run leader. There isn’t enough value for a half-season-long prop. There are too many factors at play, including injuries, so neither -135 nor +105 give enough juice.
Ohtani is an option, but I’m leaning for a higher payout with Schwarber. At +2500, he’s separated himself from the favorites to give bettors a nice chunk of change if he pulls ahead. He is eight homers behind Raleigh, but Schwarber can get hot in the second half, while others could slow down.
Finally, Schwarber is still well away from his career high in homers. He hit 47 in 2023 and 46 in 2022, so there’s reason to believe he can continue this pace following All-Star weekend.