This is the opener of a three-game series in Colorado between the Rockies and visiting Minnesota Twins.
Kyle Freeland is scheduled to pitch for Colorado while Chris Paddack should get the nod for Minnesota.
Twins at Rockies prediction, preview
There’s no way around it—Kyle Freeland has been brutal this year. Despite some halfway-decent underlying metrics, the 32-year-old owns a 1–10 record with a 5.03 ERA and a career-worst 1.54 WHIP. He’s also been on the wrong end of some bad luck, with a .359 BABIP inflating his numbers. Still, opponents are hitting .310 off him, and the damage continues to pile up.
Freeland has actually pitched reasonably well in his last two starts—one in Boston and one at home against Houston—but still allowed a combined 14 baserunners over just 11.2 innings. Now he returns to Coors Field on what’s expected to be a hot Friday in Denver, and that could spell trouble for both him and the rest of this Rockies pitching staff.
As for the Twins, they come in at 47–49, having won six of their last ten games. They’re currently four games back of the final Wild Card spot in the American League and still very much in the postseason hunt. Chris Paddack is slated to start Friday, and he hasn’t been much better than Freeland this season, carrying a 4.95 ERA into the matchup.
He’s also been noticeably worse on the road this season, posting a 5.50 ERA away from Target Field compared to a 4.34 mark at home. Paddack was hit hard in his last outing against the Cubs, giving up six runs on 11 hits and two walks over just five innings.
Twins at Rockies Best Bet
While the Twins rank 20th in MLB in runs scored this season, they’ve been more productive lately, sitting 14th over the past 10 games. Byron Buxton has been a major catalyst, absolutely crushing the ball in July—he’s hitting .333 this month with a scorching 1.086 OPS.
he Rockies rank among baseball’s worst offenses, but they’ll have Coors Field’s hitter-friendly conditions on their side Friday. Plus, they’ll be facing Paddack, who’s struggled all season and just gave up six runs in his last start before the break. This setup favors a run-heavy game.
Give me the over here.