This is the opener of a three-game series in Chicago between the Cubs and visiting Boston Red Sox.
Lucas Giolito is scheduled to pitch for Boston while Colin Rea is slated to start for Chicago.
Red Sox at Cubs prediction, preview
Lucas Giolito has been very solid in 72.1 innings this season. While the strikeout rate is only 21.7%, the walk rate is 7.1% and he’s only allowed eight home runs. The FIP is 3.62, his swinging strike rate is 9.8% and the chase rate is 29.2%. The hard hit rate is 43.8% but the barrel rate is 7.6%.
He’s been slightly better against lefties, as the strikeout rate is higher as well as the FIP. As for site location, he’s been much better on the road. The K-BB% is seven percent higher while the FIP is .5 lower.
Giolito is 6-1 in 13 starts. I’m not a pitchers/wins guy, but it does show that he’s been able to pitch deep into games and give his team a chance. He’s gone at least six innings in all but four starts. He’s allowed fewer than three earned runs in 10 starts. Now, when he gets blown up, he gets blown up. In three starts, Giolito has allowed seven, six and six earned runs. In his six most recent starts, he hasn’t allowed an earned run in four. This will be the first time facing the Cubs this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Cubs have struck out at the 25th-highest rate while having the third-best ISO. The wOBA is fourth-best in MLB.
Colin Rea and Giolito are similar. Both average around 93 mph on the fastball while most of the advanced numbers are close, although Giolito is slightly better in most. The strikeout rate is only 17.1%, four percentage points lower than Giolito. But Rea has a home run problem, as he’s allowed 16 in 92 innings. As a result, the FIP is 4.78.
Lefties have crushed Rea, slashing .301/.350/.530 with 11 of the 16 home runs. 11 of those home runs have come at home as well.
Rea’s first three appearances on the season were out of the bullpen, which included one save. Since then, he’s made 15 starts and was deployed as a true opener in another. He’s allowed over three earned runs five times. Like Giolito, he has a seven, and two six-earned run games on the ledger. This will be his first time facing Boston this season.
The Red Sox have struck out at the fifth-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being seventh in ISO. The wOBA is ninth-best.
As for bullpens, Boston has the eighth-lowest FIP while Chicago has the 20th-lowest.
Red Sox at Cubs pick, best bet
I think Giolito continues to pitch well on the road. As for Rea, I have some serious concerns about his prospects since Boston has some deadly lefties.
