This is the opener of a three-game series in Tampa Bay between the Rays and visiting Baltimore Orioles.
Charlie Morton is scheduled to pitch for Baltimore while Taj Bradley should get the nod for Tampa Bay.
Orioles at Rays prediction, preview
Charlie Morton is 41 years old and still pumping 94 mph gas. Respect. The strikeout rate is a respectable 23.1%, the swinging strike rate is 11.1% and the barrel rate is only 7.7%. But, but, but … the walk rate is 10% and the ERA is 5.18. The BABIP is an elevated .331 and the FIP is 4.34 so not the end of the world.
Morton strikes out more lefties, but he also has a higher walk rate against them and has allowed more home runs per nine. He’s been slightly better at home than on the road.
The veteran right-hander has allowed more than three earned runs six times this season, but five of those came in the first five starts of the season. In his five most recent outings, Morton has allowed a combined seven earned runs with no start more than three earned runs. Morton faced the Rays four starts ago in Tampa Bay. He went six innings, struck out seven, did not walk a batter and allowed only one earned run on six hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Rays have struck out at the 15th-highest rate while having the 13th-best ISO. The wOBA is sixth-best in MLB.
Taj Bradley is still averaging 96 mph on the fastball, but the profile has certainly changed since his rookie season. He entered the league as a high-strikeout pitcher that was prone to the long ball. Now, he’s limiting home runs but the strikeout rate has plummeted from 28% to 20.4%. The walk rate is 9.2%, a career-high as well. The ERA is 4.6 but the FIP is at 4.14.
Bradley has had issues with left-handed batters, as the walk rate is 11.1% while seven of the 12 home runs have come off their bats. He has been better on the road, primarily due to home run suppression. Eight of the 12 home runs have been served up at home.
He can look like the greatest thing since sliced bread on one night, then come back and make you want to puke as if swallowing bread covered in mold. Against Houston back in June, Bradley went seven innings and struck out 10 without allowing an earned run. In the very next start, he got lit up for seven earned runs in four innings against the Miami Marlins. Shrug. Bradley has allowed more than three earned runs six times. He has faced Baltimore twice this season — three starts ago and five starts ago. In Baltimore, he allowed five earned runs in 5.1 innings. At home, he got lit up for six earned runs in 1.1 innings.
The Orioles have struck out at the fourth-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being sixth in ISO. The wOBA is 16th-best.
As for bullpens, Tampa Bay has the 19th-lowest FIP while Baltimore has the 23rd-lowest.
Orioles at Rays Best Bet
I like Bradley, I think his stuff is legit and he can be one of the better pitchers in the league. But he is Lucy and I’m Charlie Brown running to kick the ball. Baltimore has had success against Bradley in the past, so they obviously see the ball well coming out of his hand. I think that continues.
