The American League MVP award seemed to be wrapped up back on June 1, but the Yankees’ recent stumbles and Aaron Judge’s relative slump have caused some dramatic shifts in the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Since we’re at the All-Star break, let’s take a look at the latest odds for AL MVP on DraftKings Sportsbook and break down a few of the best bets on the board.
While Judge is still the heavy favorite at -650, his odds have dropped significantly from the -6000 he had on June 1. He’s the reigning AL MVP and he and the Yankees will likely make a big splash at the trade deadline and push to the postseason.
As you can tell from those odds, though, it’s much less of a certainty than it seemed just over a month ago. Let’s take a look at the latest odds and a few alternatives that could challenge for the award as the season continues.
2025 AL MVP Award Odds
Cal Raleigh (+370)
I had Raleigh in my June 1 update at +5000 and his odds have moved all the way to +370. Raleigh is a great example of how playing long-term markets like this can be profitable even if you don’t ride them all the way to the end. Cashing out a Raleigh ticket now could be a great idea, but if you have him at 50:1 it’s also hard to give up on that big payday.
Now he’s down to the second-shortest odds to win the award behind only Judge. Raleigh has passed Judge in the home run race and has 38 dingers on the year to go with his .259 batting average and .416 wOBA. He won the Home Run Derby to further establish himself as one of the top sluggers in the game. While the Derby win doesn’t impact his regular season chase of the home run record, narratives definitely matter for MVP awards. He took a huge step towards drawing attention to his big season with his win in Atlanta on Monday.
He plays catcher, which makes his role especially vital to his team’s success on a daily basis. Some would argue that his defensive contributions are much more important behind the plate than Judge’s in the outfield, especially since Raleigh is considered a good defensive catcher.
The other key piece to this AL MVP race will likely be the AL Wild Card battle. Right now, both Judge and Raleigh’s teams are not in first place in their divisions. The Yankees currently have the top Wild Card spot with a one-game lead over the Red Sox and a two-game lead over the Mariners, who hold the third and final Wild Card spot. The Rays are 1.5 games behind the Mariners with the Rangers, Angels, Twins, Royals, and even the Guardians all within five games and at least conceivably in striking distance. If either Raleigh or Judge’s teams miss the playoffs, that player’s MVP candidacy would take a huge hit.
The Mariners just swept the Tigers and have seven wins in July, while the Yankees have just five wins this month. If the Mariners catch the Yankees and New York barely makes the playoffs or even drops out of the race entirely, Judge could be argued against as MVP. That seems unlikely given the team’s ability to stock up at the deadline, but it is within the realm of possibility and could be what pushes Raleigh into the top spot.
Jose Ramirez (+12000)
Speaking of the Guardians, if Ramirez drags this offense to the playoffs, he definitely deserves MVP consideration. The Guardians have solid pitching but Ramirez is carrying the load for Cleveland’s offense.
On the season, he’s hitting .295 with a .364 wOBA, 18 homers and 29 stolen bases. He could end up with 30 homers and 40 stolen bases at his current pace and possibly even challenge for a 40/40 season if he really starts hitting more homers.
Over his last 10 games, Ramirez has five homers and eight stolen bases while hitting .278. The Guardians won six of their last seven games after dropping 10 straight and Ramirez’s bat is carrying them. If he does that over the rest of the season and they edge into a Wild Card spot, he should at least play his way more into the discussion.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+15000)
The Blue Jays surged past the Yankees in the AL East with a hot streak that included a four-game sweep of Judge’s Yankees in Toronto. They dropped two of three to the A’s just before the break, but they still have a two-game lead in the division.
Guerrero’s overall numbers have been a little down this season, but his team’s success is still tied to him as the centerpiece of the offense. He’s hitting .277 this year with a .357 wOBA, 12 homers, and 59 RBI.
His batted ball metrics are exceptional as usual and he has the potential for some positive regression since he has a 52.9% hard-hit rate and 13.3% barrel rate, leading to a .402 xwOBA, which is significantly higher than his .357 actual wOBA. Basically, he’s gotten unlucky with his results based on the quality of his contact.
If the Blue Jays dominate the rest of the way and his contact results in better numbers, Vlad could close the gap on Judge at the top of the MVP race.
