We’ve reached the fourth and final major of the season, as Royal Portrush Golf Club in Portrush, County Antrim, Northern Ireland, plays host to the 153rd Open Championship. The course will play as a 7,381-yard par 71 with fescue greens.
We have another full-field event this week with 156 golfers and a 36-hole cut. Scottie Scheffler is the current betting favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook at +450, while Rory McIlroy (+750), Jon Rahm (+1200) and Bryson DeChambeau (+2200) round out the top of the odds board.
Below I have outlined my two favorite bets for the week.
Justin Rose to win (+7500)
We’re kicking things off with a bit of a longshot, but one who’s quietly building a compelling case—Mr. Justin Rose. He’s been showing up in big-time events all season, with a résumé that includes a devastating playoff loss to Rory McIlroy at the Masters, a T3 at Pebble Beach, and a T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. It’s been a bit of a feast-or-famine year for Rose—six missed cuts in 14 starts—but when he’s on, he’s been in contention.
Rose is coming off one of the most under-the-radar sixth-place finishes you’ll see at last week’s Scottish Open, where he gained 6.2 strokes on approach and another 2.5 off the tee at the Renaissance Club. With his ball-striking trending up and confidence clearly in form, the 44-year-old—who turns 45 in just two weeks—might be heating up at exactly the right time.
The Englishman’s Open Championship record this decade is elite—he’s made nine of his last ten cuts, with standout finishes including a pair of runner-ups (one of them coming just last year) and a T6. He also posted a T20 the last time The Open was held at Royal Portrush in 2019.
While most majors tend to favor youth, The Open is different. Age is more of a feature than a bug here—it rewards patience, guile, and a deep understanding of how to grind through a 72-hole battle against the elements. Rose embodies all of that and then some. And being European, you can bet he’s desperate to cap off his career with a Claret Jug.
At 75/1, there’s little to criticize. He’s been knocking on the door all year, and if there’s one major tailor-made for his game and his upbringing, it’s The Open.
Patrick Reed to win (+8000)
There’s been plenty of debate surrounding Patrick Reed’s chances of making the U.S. Ryder Cup team this year. As one of the most polarizing figures in golf, Reed continues to draw heavy scrutiny—not just for his play, but for the baggage he brings with him. While his competitive fire is undeniable, the prevailing sentiment is that his presence could disrupt team chemistry, a concern rooted in past Ryder Cup drama.
That said, Reed is playing some of his best golf in years, and if he were to win The Open, it would be nearly impossible for Captain Keegan Bradley to ignore him. Dating back to LIV Hong Kong in early March, Reed has posted six top-10s in 12 starts, including a win at LIV Dallas, a T4 at LIV Korea, and a T3 at the Masters.
He’s also coming off a T10 at Valderrama last week and appears to be rounding into form at just the right time. Love him or hate him, Reed is making a serious case based on his recent play—and another big result this week would turn up the pressure even more.
The Open has not been Reed’s best major overall, but he does have three top-20s—including a T10—in eight starts at this event dating back to 2014. Ironically enough, the T10 came in 2019 at Royal Portrush, so maybe the stars are aligning for Captain America.
As mentioned above with Rose, The Open is usually a tournament won by a veteran, and Reed certainly fits that bill despite the lack of elite history. He’s got one of the best short games in the world and can putt the lights out when he’s on. It will come down to him avoiding the big misses off the tee this week—if he can do that, there’s no reason he can’t be relevant down the stretch on Sunday.
Sign me up at 80/1.