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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction, pick for NBA Summer League on Wednesday 7/16/25

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction, pick for NBA Summer League on Wednesday 7/16/25

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By: Griffin Wong

Less than a month ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder won their first championship since moving to the prairie in 2008, then dished out more than $800 million in contracts to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. So far in the NBA Summer League, they’ve gotten the chance to test out yet another member of their young core — last season’s first-round pick, Nikola Topić, who missed the entire season with a torn ACL.

Opposing Topić tonight will be the New Orleans Pelicans, who have a roster headlined by lottery picks Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen. The Pelicans lost, 93-86, to the Portland Trail Blazers last night.

Oklahoma City is a 9.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-440 on the Moneyline), with the point total set for 179. New Orleans is +340 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll preview each team and offer a prediction.


Thunder-Pelicans Roster Breakdown

The rich have gotten richer; the Thunder have a league-best 3-0 record so far in Summer League play, stringing together dominant wins reminiscent of their NBA roster. Oklahoma City’s roster is headlined by Topić, who has averaged 11.0 points, 7.3 assists, and 1.7 steals per game so far on 36-33-100 shooting splits, demonstrating poise and capable game management. But the Thunder have received contributions from several less-heralded players: second-year pro Branden Carlson dropped 23 points in just 19 minutes in his sole game, Ajay Mitchell has averaged 20 points per game, and Brooks Barnhizer has contributed a Summer League-leading 4.7 steals per game.

The Pelicans, on the other hand, sit dead last in the Summer League with an 0-3 record and a negative-8.7 point differential. That isn’t attributable to a lack of talent on their roster; Fears and Queen have both shown plenty of flashes so far, and Antonio Reeves and Yves Missi played real rotational minutes last season, with Missi serving as the regular starting center. The 21-year-old Belgian has had a rough Summer League; though he has been dominant on the glass, averaging 10.7 rebounds per game, he’s only managed 7.3 points per game on 29.0% shooting from the field and 30.8% accuracy from the free-throw line. It’ll be interesting to see how Willie Green manages his center rotation between Missi and Queen, who has posted a double-double in each game on 44-50-72 shooting splits.

Oklahoma City must just have a type, because even its Summer League team is second in steals, just 0.7 per game behind the Toronto Raptors. These summer Thunder, like the championship-winning NBA squad, also struggle to rebound and are just average in three-point accuracy. New Orleans, meanwhile, hasn’t been able to buy a bucket, ranking seventh-to-last in points, third-to-last in field goal percentage, and sixth-to-last in three-point percentage. The Pelicans also have recorded the second-most turnovers — individually, Queen and Fears rank first and second — and the most fouls.

Thunder vs. Pelicans Pick

Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 (-110)

After a full regular season and playoff run of Oklahoma City dominance, I thought Summer League might serve as a bit of a respite. Evidently not; the Thunder’s suffocating defense apparently translates to the exhibition squad as well. For New Orleans, Fears and Queen are building blocks, and Pelicans fans should be optimistic, but they’re both fairly young and raw. Both of them have looked progressively more comfortable throughout the tournament, but their turnover and foul issues are likely to persist into another rebuilding season in the Bayou. Oklahoma City has the third-shortest odds to add a Summer League title to its 2024-25 triumph.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.