The Miami Heat experienced a tumultuous 2024-25 campaign as the Jimmy Butler trade saga hovered over the team. They finished the year 37-45 and lost in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament, ending their season with a fizzle rather than a bang. With the opening weeks of the offseason in the rearview mirror, the roster has been shuffled through free agency and the draft as Miami looks ahead to the upcoming season.
As NBA futures markets go live on DraftKings Sportsbook, we’re taking a look at the Heat’s win total projections. At 37.5, that line remains the 11th-lowest mark of any team as things currently stand. Read on to see which direction bettors should target.
If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, check out DKN’s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
Miami Heat 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
The Heat return their two most important players in Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo for yet another season, so their stars remain in place for the time being. Herro earned his first NBA All-Star nod last season with a career-high 23.9 points and 5.5 assists per game, and while he’s likely reached his upside, there’s no denying the Kentucky product deserves recognition for how he’s grown his game. Adebayo didn’t experience as much success with a slight downtick in his raw stat outputs and the worst shooting percentage of his eight-year career, but he did show some growth from three-point range at 35.7% with a newfound willingness to shoot from deep.
Getting into the offseason, Miami’s biggest add hails from the Los Angeles Clippers via trade. The Heat acquired Norman Powell, a 32-year-old wing who arguably should’ve won Most Improved Player with a career-best 21.8 points per game on a very efficient 48.4% from the field and 41.8% from beyond the arc. One can argue this team needed a variety of other archetypes rather than another scorer at the two guard spot (though Powell can slide to the three) but there’s no denying they added a talented player. to the roster. Granted, his age and a looming contract extension do raise concerns, but the on-court production feels undeniable at this point.
Outside of Powell, the roster saw some shifts in the role-player department. Sharpshooter Duncan Robinson was sign-and-traded to the Pistons while Kyle Anderson and Kevin Love were also traded away, plus Alec Burks left via free agency as well. Losing Robinson hurts more than the others as he brought elite shooting to the table, but Powell provides an upgrade in a vacuum and the Heat also received Simone Fontecchio in the sign-and-trade for Robinson. The former Piston should slot immediately into the rotation and shot 39% or better from deep in three straight seasons before last.
Miami does lack some depth as they’re thin at guard off the bench aside from Davion Mitchell and Terry Rozier, but they’ll bank on No. 20 pick Kasparas Jakucionis to step up in his first NBA season. The Illinois product averaged 15.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists in his one-and-done season. He displayed some upside as a passer but was pretty turnover-prone with 3.7 per game, so he’ll need some seasoning before being counted on as a consistent contributor.
The Heat are also limited in the frontcourt, particularly at center. It seems like one of Adebayo or last year’s rookie standout Kel’el Ware will play the five at any given time, so adding another big man or two becomes a priority.
Miami Heat projected win total: Best bets, predictions
Miami Heat under 37.5 wins (-115)
This pick could probably go either way but the under feels like a more likely outcome given the state of this Miami roster. Herro and Adebayo are stars, but neither one is the lead guy for a basketball team with aspirations of a deep playoff run. We’ve seen that at work last season as the absence of Jimmy Butler hit the squad hard. Banking on either to take a significant leap doesn’t seem realistic, and Pat Riley also struck out on his pursuit of a big fish this offseason when the team failed to add Kevin Durant once again via trade. They clearly know they need more firepower beyond Powell’s addition to compete.
Sure, Andrew Wiggins may look better with some stability now that he’s settled in Miami. Adebayo could bounce back as far as efficiency goes. Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez Jr. could finally take the next step the front office hopes for. All things considered though, the Heat seem to be betting on a lot of internal improvements on a roster that looks a little too thin at the moment. Any combination of these things could happen, but the team struggled last season in Butler’s absence and they didn’t get that much better over the offseason.
A weak Eastern Conference may help the squad in South Beach fight for another Play-In spot, but at the end of the day, I just don’t see significant improvement in the cards. They’ll find themselves on an early vacation after going under the 37.5-win mark — thankfully they need not travel very far for a scenic destination.
