The PGA heads to Portrush, Northern Ireland, this week for the Open Championship, the last major championship of the season. The event will again take place at Royal Portrush, which hosted the Open back in 2019. Portrush is a longer par 71 that should set up as a tougher links test for the pros. At over 7,300 yards, it’s longer than many links courses we typically see and presents the players with several challenging shots thanks to the elevation change around the course.
While I would expect a supreme ball-striker to win this week, this is still the links, and poor weather and funky bounces will be part of the fun.
I wrote more about Royal Portrush in this week’s Open Championship PGA DFS Cheat Sheet.
“As a Par 71, it sets up as standard fare with three Par 5s and four par 3s. The par 3s won’t necessarily all be overly challenging but the Par 3 16th hole will be one of the most-talked about and dramatic holes of the week. Nicknamed “Calamity,” it’s a hole that can stretch well past 235 yards and plays uphill to boot, over a huge chasm and into a diagonal green that would be hard to hit from under 200 yards. A bad bounce here could ruin a round in a hurry.
The Par 5s will all offer chances at birdies and eagles, but with pot bunkers strewn throughout the fairways and thicker hay/fescue to deal with, if you are way off line off the tee, these holes can also serve up bogey or worse if you get too offline.
More than anything, Portrush looks like it will again cater to the precise ball-strikers who are also able to deal with some bigger elevation changes and its solid length. It’s not an overly short links course at 7,300+ yards, but its layout still demands a lot of precision, especially down the stretch where precise drives will be needed on 17 and 18, and a fantastic iron or fairway wood needed to survive 16.”
As of now, there is some poor weather on the horizon for Day 1 and 2. It does look like the afternoon starters may be getting the worst of it with rain expected to start around midday or just after, and winds rising slightly. It’s not foolproof, as the wind and weather can change on a moment’s notice on a coastal links course in the UK, but be wary if you’re bullish on a lot of starters from the first Thursday PM wave.
DraftKings Pick6 has full tournament totals up for this week, so I’ll again be focusing on FULL TOURNAMENT totals, specifically finishing positions (“Better Than” or “Worse Than”), but also the holes played market, which essentially acts as a “make or miss the cut” question.
Top DraftKings Pick6 Picks for the Open Championship
Ludvig Aberg Better Than 30.5 Finishing Position
We hit on all four of the plays from this article last week and started the picks with a “better than” play on a Scandinavian golfer. Let’s try the same strategy this week, but go to Ludvig Aberg instead. Aberg had a nice charge on the weekend at the Scottish and even though he came up short of the win, he’ll have been buoyed by the effort. T-8 while gaining strokes across the board is nothing to sniff at, and the fact he found some confidence with the putter is a huge plus heading into this week.
I know he’s missed the cut at the last two majors, but typically when he’s gotten through the cut, he’s done very well at these bigger events, and he managed a second at Augusta in 2024, T-7 at Augusta this year and T-12 at the US Open in 2024. I think this is the week he rebounds and puts up his first great result at the Open.
Bryson DeChambeau Worse Than 20.5 Finishing Position
On the flip side to Aberg, we have Bryson, who is coming in without any links prep after playing in Spain last week and to a major that he has not been able to figure out to date. The American has one top 10 at the Open over seven career appearances, and that came back in 2022 at the somewhat outdated setup that is the Old Course at St. Andrews.
He didn’t play great last week on LIV either, finishing T-30 in the limited-field event. I wouldn’t be overly shocked if he played solid this week, especially since Portrush is a little more demanding. However, history suggests that this 20.5 finishing position will be tough for him to meet, as he’s only bested it once at this major to date. I’d rather fade him at these levels.
Patrick Reed Better Than 37.5 Finishing Position
One LIV player I am rather high on this week is Patrick Reed. The Open has never been Reed’s best major, but at the same time, he’s not exactly embarrassed himself at this event either. He was top 20 in the Open Championships twice between 2014 to 2017 and was also T-10 at Royal Portrush in 2019, which is his best finish at this major to date.
Trends-wise, he fits a lot of criteria for me as he’s 34 (eight of the last 13 Open winners have been 32 years or older), was T-10 at Portrush in 2019 (16 of the past 19 winners have all recorded a top 10 at the Open in a previous season), and was T-3 at Augusta in April (five of the last seven Open winners had finished T-11 or better at one of the first three majors of the season).
He also won in Dallas a few weeks ago and finished T-10 on LIV last week in Spain. At the US Open, he gained strokes across the board on his way to a T-23 finish. He may not win, but given the tougher course and the focus he’s shown this season, a top-35 finish seems very doable.
Mackenzie Hughes Less Than 36.5 Holes Played
I’ll end with a made/miss cut play and target Canadian Mackenzie Hughes, who hasn’t played well at all as of late. Hughes did make the cut at the US Open but only managed a T-50 finish. Since then, he’s only managed a T-65 at the limited field Travelers event and a missed cut last week in Scotland, where he shot 73 in Round 2 and lost strokes on approach.
Hughes has had some success at this major, finishing T-6 back in 2021, but he’s coming in with poor form this season and even lost strokes on the greens last week, not a great sign for a putter-based player like Hughes. He could put together a solid round and sneak past the cut, but with a strong field, poor conditions and a course that looks like it will play fairly tough, the play is to fade him until he shows signs of better play.
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