Baseball might well be the American pastime, but slowly but surely, other countries are catching up. 27.8% of the MLB’s players were born outside the United States, the fourth-highest proportion in league history. An international player has won five of the last 10 MVP awards: Japanese slugger Shohei Ohtani (three times), Venezuelan Ronald Acuña Jr., and Cuban José Abreu.
That’s doubly true when it comes to power. Five of the 11 players with 23 or more homers this season were born outside the United States: Ohtani, Eugenio Suárez (Venezuela), Seiya Suzuki (Japan), Juan Soto (Dominican Republic), and Junior Caminero (Dominican Republic). A Dominican has won the Home Run Derby in each of the past three seasons, with Soto claiming the title in 2022, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — who was born in Canada but grew up in Santiago — in 2023, and Teoscar Hernández outlasting Bobby Witt Jr. in 2024.
Tonight’s contest has three international representatives, with Caminero joined by countryman Oneil Cruz and New York Yankees infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr., who hails from the Bahamas. They’ll be joined by five Americans — Cal Raleigh, James Wood, Matt Olson, Brent Rooker, and Byron Buxton. Together, the Americans are -205 to win the competition at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the international stars are +170.
Raleigh (+300) is the overall favorite, but Cruz (+330) is right behind him. The other two Caribbean representatives, Chisholm (+1100) and Caminero (+1200), have the longest odds to win. Acuña was set to participate, but he suffered a back injury last week and dropped out in favor of his teammate Olson.
Winning Nationality – Rest of the World (+170)
While there’s no rational reason to back a Dominican slugger over an equally-talented hitter from another nation, the country has produced plenty of sluggers who are known for playing with energy, which is critical under the bright lights of the Derby. American players also tend to be more well-known to the domestic audience, so international stars often have chips on their shoulders, and the Derby is an opportunity for them to prove themselves. Three years ago, Dominican Julio Rodríguez rose to prominence stateside with an incredible Derby display at Dodger Stadium, and tonight, I could see backing Caminero breaking out nine days after his 22nd birthday.
Chisholm is also undervalued. Though the Bahamian’s slugging history isn’t quite as gaudy as some of the other competitors’ — he’s never hit more than 24 homers in a season and has just 17 so far, tied for the second-fewest in the eight-hitter field — that’s partially because he’s played only 65 games. Since he’s returned from injury, he’s slugged 10 homers in just 35 games to go along with a .985 OPS. While he doesn’t quite have the bat speed that Caminero and Cruz do, he’s excellent at making the most of his swings, recording barrels at a 97th-percentile rate. His 18.5% mark is the third-best in the competition, behind only Cruz and Raleigh. Plus, Truist Park is the seventh-most homer-friendly venue for lefties, which should put Chisholm at an advantage.
Cruz is the Caribbean’s best bet, though. Despite having only 16 homers this season, he leads the league in bat speed and average exit velocity, and he’s second in barrel rate and third in hard-hit percentage. His main issue is that he’s hitting just .212 and whiffs at a third-percentile rate, but no player should whiff in the Derby, and when he connects on one, it goes. At six-foot-seven and 240 pounds, he’s the largest player in the competition, so his long levers help him generate torque quickly. Like Chisholm, he also bats left-handed, which could give him an edge over the switch-hitting Raleigh, who has been much better as a righty.
