The MLB season has reached the All-Star break, meaning it’s time for a fan-favorite event to return once more! On Monday night, eight of the top hitters in professional baseball take the field for the 2025 Home Run Derby at Atlanta’s Truist Park.
With veteran sluggers like current MLB home-run leader Cal Raleigh and Byron Buxton in the mix competing with young standouts James Wood and Junior Caminero, there’s no shortage of star power in the field for today’s event. Let’s take a look at the eight batters competing and make a call with a prediction and pick for the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby.
2025 MLB Home Run Derby prediction, preview
Tonight’s Home Run Derby should be a fun one, and while the field changed over the last several days with some opt-outs, there’s still plenty of power on display tonight. The full field is as follows:
- Cal Raleigh, SEA Mariners, 38 HR
- Oneil Cruz, PIT Pirates, 16 HR
- James Wood, WAS Nationals, 24 HR
- Matt Olson, ATL Braves, 17 HR
- Brent Rooker, Athletics, 20 HR
- Byron Buxton, MIN Twins, 21 HR
- Jazz Chisholm, NY Yankees, 17 HR
- Junior Caminero, TB Rays, 23 HR
Heading into the event, Raleigh looks like an early favorite — for good reason. Only one player in MLB history tallied more homers than the Mariners catcher has this season. Who was that slugger? Barry Bonds with 39 in 2001, which really puts Raleigh’s historic campaign into perspective. “Big Dumper” boasts a ridiculous 98th-percentile barrel rate with an 88th-percentile average exit velocity, so it’s no wonder he’s squaring up to the ball and sending over the wall all over the park. He should easily qualify for the knockout rounds, if not the final.
Granted, pretty much all of these guys post some wild Savant numbers when it comes to their hitting prowess. Only Caminero’s barrel rate sits below the 88th percentile, while he, Rooker and Chisholm are the only contestants with an average exit velocity in the 82nd percentile or lower. While not a perfect translation over to this format with much more hitter-friendly pitches, it’s still something to note for tonight.
That leaves us with Wood, Olson, Buxton and Cruz as the remaining four batters. Wood feels like a great pick tonight based on both his homer production on the year with the second-most in the Derby, as well as his underlying hitting metrics at 97th percentile in barrel rate and exit velo. Olson also looks like a semi-sleeper in this contest since he’s hit the second-fewest dingers this season but brings one thing the other hitters don’t — a 74th-percentile launch angle sweet spot percentage, the best of any batters besides Rooker.
As for Buxton, he’s enjoying one of the best seasons of his career solid underlying metrics, plus he may feel energized after hitting for the cycle this weekend with his 21st homer of the year. Finally, Cruz is perhaps the most interesting case since he’s blasted the fewest homers of any contestant on the season but also grades out in the 100th percentile in both average exit velo and barrel rate.
2025 MLB Home Run Derby pick, best bet
Are we going into far too much detail by trying to apply Savant metrics to the Home Run Derby? It’s possible we’re thinking too deeply here since after all, these batters are swinging for the fences every time tonight rather than utilizing their typical in-game plate approach. Still, these numbers give us a better look into what kind of power-hitting ability these hitters bring to the table beyond just checking homer totals.
Based on the numbers we’ve crunched here, I feel confident saying Raleigh and Wood will both make the semifinal for sure. As for the other two spots, I think any of Buxton, Olson, or Cruz are very solid picks to compete in the knockout round. Only four hitters will advance to the semifinal, in which they’ll be seeded No. 1-4 based on homers hit in the first round.
Picking who advances to the final remains trickier since it depends on what the semis matchups look like. However, this is where my top pick for Home Run Derby lies. We’ve established that Buxton’s raw HR total and underlying numbers look good, but there’s one more stat to mention. He’s seen fewer at-bats this season than all competitors besides Chisholm, yet he’s hit more homers than most. His HR/AB sits third-highest among the field even with the smaller sample, so with all these factors in mind, I really like the Twins star to make the final at +380 odds.
This avenue feels a little safer than picking a winner for the whole event while still offering better value than, say, taking Raleigh (the chalk favorite at +300 odds) to win outright. Buxton is on pace to shatter his career-high home run tally of 28 this season and brings plenty of upside to the table, so bettors looking for a massive payout can also consider taking him to win the whole Home Run Derby at +950 odds as well.
Best bet: Byron Buxton to make the final (+380)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
