The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby is upon us and no player has more hype surrounding them than Seattle Mariners star Cal Raleigh. It’s not often a catcher takes the top spot in professional baseball’s home run race but Raleigh defies all typical expectations as one of the best power hitters in the sport.
As a +300 favorite to win tonight’s edition of the Home Run Derby, we’re taking a look at just how many dingers “Big Dumper” will knock into the stands.
How many home runs will Cal Raleigh hit?
Raleigh showed flashes of an elite hitter over the last couple of seasons with 30 homers in 2023 and 34 in 2024, but he never batted better than .232 in either of those seasons. In 2025 though, it’s an entirely different story as he hits .259 with a .634 slugging percentage, a career-high by far.
Over his 96 games this season, Raleigh’s home run count sits at 38 — shattering a career-best with 66 games left to play. If those 38 long balls sound like an absurd statistic, you’re not incorrect. Only one player in MLB history has ever racked up more home runs at the All-Star break, putting Raleigh in an elite club with Barry Bonds’ 2001 campaign. The Mariners slugger has captivated fans with his power-hitting ways this year and already cemented a spot in the MLB record books.
Tonight’s Home Run Derby provides a chance to further display that talent on the national stage and send some lucky spectators home with a souvenir. In the opening round of three minutes or 40 pitches, whichever comes first, three of last year’s contestants tallied at least 20 homers. It’s very fair to assume Raleigh will at least tally 20 in this part of the contest. He’s listed as a +310 favorite to record the most long balls in the opening round with an over/under of 21.5.
The semifinal and final shift to an identical two-minute, 27-pitch format. Last year’s semifinal saw tallies of 12, 17, 16 and 15 with a swing-off tiebreaker for the latter two, while the final saw 14 and 13 homers from the two contestants. With that in mind, penciling in 14 or 15 home runs for Raleigh in each round makes plenty of sense if he qualifies for each.
With that in mind, Raleigh could very well end up with 50 total home runs tonight if he advances all the way to the final with 20 in the opening round and 15 in each of the knockout stages. He’s a very special talent in the midst of one of the best pure power displays the MLB has ever seen, so taking him to record over 21.5 blasts in the first round makes a lot of sense for bettors looking to put in a wager before the event starts.
Best bet: Cal Raleigh over 21.5 HRs in first round (-105)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
