The MLB season is past its midway point and will pause for the All-Star break. This will be kicked off by the Home Run Derby tonight as the league’s biggest sluggers compete to put as many home runs over the fence as possible. While the outlook is slightly different from DraftKings’ usual contests, you can still get involved with one of the newest features on DraftKings this year in Pick6 Fantasy Baseball!
This article will look at my top Pick6 plays for tonight’s Home Run Derby action. You simply choose whether each set statistic will be more or less than the set number. With the stage set, here are my favorite picks for the All-Star event.
Oneil Cruz More Than 120.5 Max Exit Velocity
Exit velocity measures how fast a ball is hit by the player at the plate. It is tough to find a player with more impressive metrics in this category than Oneil Cruz. The Pirates slugger set the MLB record in 2022 when he ripped a ball off the wall at 122.4 miles per hour. Cruz then broke that record this year by hitting a pitch 122.9 miles per hour, which went 432 feet over the fence.
Since his Major League debut in 2022, Cruz has posted 11 of the 19 fastest exit velocities in Major League Baseball. Cruz has the fastest swing speed in the field at 78.6 miles per hour. Only 10 balls have been hit this season that have cleared 118 miles per hour in exit velocity. Cruz is responsible for six of these. Standing 6-foot-7, he is not afraid to put everything into a swing and can completely punish a baseball when he gets hold. I am less bullish on Cruz putting up a strong overall Derby performance, but I love his chances of connecting on at least one pitch to produce an exit velocity of more than 120.5.
Byron Buxton More Than 464.5 Longest Home Run Total Distance
Byron Buxton enters the break with 21 home runs and ranks second among contestants with an average home run length of 410 feet. He has also launched the second-longest home run across the MLB this season at 479 feet. Standing 6-foot-2, Buxton has an effortless swing and also enters having tallied 11 home runs since the start of June. Injuries have been his biggest problem throughout his career, but Buxton has remained healthy this year and is slashing .289/.351/.574 with a .925 OPS.
Buxton also leads the field in no-doubter rate, or home runs that would have gone out in all 30 ballparks, with 76.2% of his home runs meeting this mark. The average for the field is just 47.3% in this category. The 31-year-old also ranks third in the field in expected home runs and second in average home run distance. The Twins’ third-base coach Tommy Watkins will be pitching for Buxton and has known the two-time All-Star since 2013, when he was playing Low-A ball. Buxton should be in play to have a chance at winning the entire contest, but I am most confident in him getting a hold of at least one and launching it more than 464.5 feet, just as he has done against live pitching already this year.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Less Than 17.5 Round 1 Home Runs
Jazz Chisholm Jr. enters as a bit of a surprise selection in the Home Run Derby with 17 home runs on the season and never recording more than 24 in a season. Thirteen of his 17 home runs have also come at Yankee Stadium, with the short porch in right field aiding him in collecting these numbers. Chisholm Jr. is posting an average exit velocity of 89.4 miles per hour and a maxEV of 110.9, which each ranks the worst among contestants. His average swing speed of 73.3 miles per hour also ranks last.
Standing 5-foot-11 with a 184-pound frame, it is not as easy and repeatable for Chisholm Jr. to put balls over the fence at a regular rate as it is for some of the other contestants. He has also dealt with oblique, groin and shoulder issues already this season. The Yankees’ second baseman has also been a bit cautious since his latest return from injury, so don’t expect him to overexert himself in this type of exhibition. Ultimately, I expect Chisholm Jr. to tire out quicker than some other contestants due to the nature of his frame and not be determined to push through it. He is a bit overmatched for these type of home run expectations, so expect him to just soak in the moment and tally less than 17.5 home runs.
Cal Raleigh More Than 454.5 Longest Home Run Distance
There will be plenty of eyes on Cal Raleigh in this contest. The Mariners’ catcher leads the MLB with 38 home runs at the All-Star break, and if he keeps it up he could be in striking distance of breaking Barry Bonds’ single-season home run record of 73. Raleigh is slashing .259/.376/.634 this season with a 1.011 OPS on the season. He is setting career marks across the board in categories like home runs, RBIs, WAR and slugging percentage, but he has shown no signs of slowing down.
Raleigh is a switch-hitter who has shown impressive power numbers from both sides of the plate. He has teased the idea of potentially hitting from both sides of the plate during this contest, but the ballpark being more friendly to lefties could end up changing his mind. Twenty-two of his 38 home runs this season have come while he is batting left-handed so far this season, so this would not be a concern. To this point, Adley Rutschman is the only player to hit from both sides of the plate in the Home Run Derby back in 2023. Raleigh’s father will be pitching to the All-Star with his little brother set to serve as the catcher behind the plate. He will also be looking to be the first catcher in MLB history to win the Home Run Derby.
Raleigh’s longest home run of the season has been 440 feet. But despite his off-the-charts numbers overall this year, he has hit a home run farther than this in each of the last three seasons. He will be celebrated as the biggest star of the contest and expect the Mariners’ standout to be ready for the moment. Look for Raleigh to have some more success launching balls farther with pitching setting him up for success and for him to launch a ball more than 454.5 feet tonight. It would not entirely shock me if he becomes the 19th player in MLB history to hit a ball 500+ feet in the Home Run Derby.
James Wood More Than 20.5 Round 1 Home Runs
James Wood is a popular pick to win the entire Home Run Derby tonight, and he enters with the longest average home run distance of any of the participants at 411 feet. Standing 6-foot-7 and weighing 235 pounds, Wood has a commanding presence at the plate with the numbers to back it. He is posting the fifth-best exit velocity of anyone in baseball at 117.9 miles per hour. Wood has 24 home runs and 69 RBIs already this season.
The 22-year-old is the youngest participant in this year’s Derby and would be the youngest in MLB history to win the contest if he delivers. He will be pitched to by Nationals’ third-base coach and 12-year MLB veteran Ricky Gutierrez. Wood ranks above the 95th percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and barrel rate on the year. He is second in the majors with 12 home runs hit harder than 110 miles per hour, and he smashed a ball 451 feet over the fence twice this year. In just his second season with the Nationals, Wood tied Bryce Harper’s previous organizational record for the hardest-hit home run.
While he lacks experience in a Home Run Derby setting and has been open about this, there is too much raw power and home run production for Wood not to have some success. Look for him to get off to a strong start in the contest and tally more than 20.5 home runs in the opening round.
Matt Olson More Than 1.5 Rounds Played
Matt Olson was a late addition to the Home Run Derby as he was called in to replace his teammate Ronald Acuna Jr., who elected not to participate due to back soreness. Olson leads the Braves with 17 home runs on the year and also participated in the 2021 Home Run Derby, where he launched 23 home runs in the first round. He will have the home crowd behind him playing in Truist Stadium and surely will get the loudest pop of the participants. For what it is worth, Bryce Harper was the last player from a host team to win it all back in 2019.
The format of the contest involves all eight hitters competing in the opening round for four spots. They are then seeded in the second round for a head-to-head contest. Olson has tallied 62 home runs in Truist Park since joining the Braves in 2022. It is a friendly stadium for left-handed power hitters, considered the seventh-most favorable home run park for lefties in the league. I don’t quite see Olson matching the top-end numbers of some of the competition to win the Derby in its entirety. However, in his home park, which is already friendly to left-handed hitters and with Home Run Derby experience under his belt, look for the Braves standout to make it past the opening round.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of 2+ players and select whether or not you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you can not pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
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