Eight players will enter the batters boxes on Monday. Only one will hoist the trophy at the end of the night.
Three of the participants are at least 30 years old: Matt Olson, Brent Rooker and Byron Buxton. James Wood and Junior Caminero are 22 years old.
Cal Raleigh is the favorite at +295 to win it all on DraftKings Sportsbook. Raleigh is the current regular season home run leader with 38 dingers. The .377 ISO and 24.8 degrees launch angle are both tops in the Derby field by a wide margin.
Only Olson has experience in the Derby, as he was a participant back in 2021.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday night:
Round 1 – Total HRs – Jazz Chisholm Jr. – Under 17.5 (+100)
Chisholm Jr. has an ISO of .265 on the season, but the average exit velocity is only 89.4 mph while the maxEV is 110.9 mph. Both numbers are the lowest in the field. The swing speed of 73.3 mph is the lowest in the field as well.
Thirteen of Chisholm Jr.’s 17 home runs have come in Yankee Stadium, with the famed short porch in right field. Yankee Stadium is ranked third-best for home runs by left-handed batters. Truist Park, where the 2025 Home Run Derby will take place, is 15th-best.
Now, Chisholm Jr. can hit the ball over 400 feet, which he’s done many times this season. That said, he’s only 5′ 11″ and 184 pounds and will have to swing with maximum effort 30 to 40 times in the span of three minutes. He’s dealt with oblique, groin and shoulder issues this season. In addition, he’s working with a “70 percent” mindset since returning from the injured list — meaning not over-swinging or playing out of control — so he likely won’t be pushing himself Monday night.
Finally, it will be his stepdad that will be throwing the pitches for him Monday night. He’s never been on the big stage, so there could be some sub-optimal pitches to drive out.
Player to Record Highest Exit Velocity Derby HR – Oneil Cruz (+115)
Cruz is the heavy favorite but I cannot get away from this. He has the fastest swing speed in the field at 78.6 mph. The 96.4 mph average exit velocity is the fastest by a wide margin. So is the 122.9 max exit velocity. No need to get cute.
Derby Winner – Byron Buxton (+950) and Junior Caminero (+1200)
Raleigh is the favorite at +295, and for good reasons. Cruz is right behind at +320. But i think there is value with both Buxton and Caminero.
Buxton has 21 home runs on the season with a .286 ISO, which is second-highest in the field. The 17.9 degrees launch angle is only bested by Raleigh’s 24.8. The 75 mph swing speed is fifth-best. Tommy Watkins, the Twins third-base coach, will be tossing him pitches Monday night. The stage shouldn’t overwhelm him and he’s thrown batting practice to Buxton since 2013. The issue with Buxton has always been about injuries. He’s healthy now and +950 is a good price for an outcome that is well within the range of outcomes.
Caminero is more risky for sure, and there are reasons why he has the highest odds at +1200. He’s only 22 years old but he’s been composed every since it made it to the majors. The 23 home runs hit this season are the third-most in the field while the .249 ISO is fifth-best. The max exit velocity of 116.5 mph is third-highest, but the main allure is the 78 mph swing speed. Only Cruz’s 78.6 mph is faster. Finally, Tomas Francisco will be tossing pitches to Caminero on Monday. He threw to Randy Arozarena during last year’s Derby in which Arozarena was the runner-up.
