This Sunday, Major League Baseball heads into the All-Star break with all 30 teams in action in the afternoon. While most of the action is early in the afternoon, four games make up the late wave of action that begins at 4:05 p.m. ET. From those final four games before the break, let’s hunt down some good home run props to target. After looking at the environments, matchups, splits and current form, my favorite home run props on the board are from Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez and Bryce Harper.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences—all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the best home run hitters can’t count on going deep in any single contest, meaning home run props are never “safe” picks, even if every single factor seems to indicate a dinger is on deck. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on due to their extreme volatility.
What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do hit. It also makes sense to use these home run props with other picks in SGPs or parlay plays. I also like to play them at small money in round robins, boosting their upside even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters goes yard—get those QTs and RTs ready on X!
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Sunday afternoon.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Bo Bichette to record 1+ home runs (+350)
Bichette and the Blue Jays split the first two games of the series in Sacramento with the Athletics, and they’ll look to head into the break on a high note with a win on Sunday. The weather will be warm with the wind blowing gently out at Sutter Health Park in what should be a homer-friendly spot for both teams. Since Jose Berrios has been very good at limiting long balls, I’m leaning into the Toronto side of the matchup and taking Bichette’s home run props against lefty Jeffrey Springs.
Springs has given up 17 homers in 19 games. Right-handed hitters have hit 15 of those 17 long balls, and nine of those home runs have come in his 46 frames at Sutter Health Park. Springs has only given up seven runs over his last four starts, but he has surrendered five home runs in those outings.
Bichette is 5-for-13 against Springs in their past meetings but he has not homered off him. He hasn’t homered in just over a week, but his last homer was this mammoth shot against a lefty:
He has hit safely in each of his eight games, going 13-for-32 (.406) with six extra-base hits and a 50% hard-hit rate. On the season, Bichette is hitting .265 with a .314 wOBA against lefties like Springs.
Bichette will be on the strong side of the splits against Springs and he comes at a good value compared to the Jays’ other righties.
Teoscar Hernandez to record 1+ home runs (+450)
The Dodgers and Giants meet by the Bay in another three-game series, which will be decided by Sunday’s rubber game. The Dodgers snapped their seven-game skid on Saturday and will look to steal a series win from their rivals as they take on lefty Robbie Ray.
Hernandez has been excellent against lefties this season, so I think he has a good shot to go deep even though he only has one homer in his last 20 games. He has been hitting the ball well lately, with a 60% hard-hit rate over his last 18 games and an average exit velocity of 94.6 miles per hour. He just hasn’t been able to quite get home runs.
The veteran outfielder missed some time with a bone bruise to his foot but returned to the lineup on Friday and went 1-for-4 with a double and also went 1-for-4 on Saturday with two more hard-hit balls.
He does have 14 homers on the season and five of those have come off left-handed pitchers against whom he is hitting .356 with a .458 wOBA and 201 wRC+ on the season. He also has a good history against the lefty he’ll face on Sunday, going 3-for-7 with a pair of long balls against Ray in their past meetings.
Ray has actually been pretty solid for the Giants this season overall, going 9-3 with a 2.63 ERA, but he has allowed 12 homers, seven of which have come in his last seven starts. While most of the Dodgers’ power is left-handed, Ray has held the lefties to a .172 batting average with two homers this season.
The platoon matchups make this a good place to pivot to Teoscar Hernandez and look for him to return good value on the other side of the splits in Sunday afternoon’s home run props.
Bryce Harper to record 1+ home runs (+330)
Harper and the Phillies face old friend Nick Pivetta in their final matchup of the ceremonial first half. He homered and had four hits against the Giants on Thursday, and he will look to get one more dinger before heading into the break.
Harper has gone 10-for-37 (.270) since returning from his stint on the injured list 10 games ago. He has four doubles, that home run, a 45.8% hard-hit rate and a 16.7% barrel rate in his last two weeks of action.
Harper has a good history against Pivetta, going 5-for-16 (.312) with a pair of homers in the past. Pivetta has been very good in his 18 starts for the Padres, going 9-2 with a 3.07 ERA, but he has given up six homers in his last seven starts and righties like Harper have nine of the 12 homers against him this season along with a .293 wOBA.
Even though Pivetta isn’t a perfect matchup, Harper brings solid value to his home run props Sunday afternoon.
