As expected, the Blue Jays defeated the Athletics in the series opener. What was unexpected was how close it was. Toronto won 7-6 despite being up 7-0 in the top of the sixth inning.
A three-run bottom sixth and three-run bottom ninth nearly gave the Athletics the win. It did, however, clear the over 11 total runs in my DraftKings Sportsbook best bet for the contest.
Saturday’s game will feature Kevin Gausman and Jacob Lopez on the mound. The Blue Jays are -138 moneyline favorites, while the Athletics are +113 underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 10 runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Saturday’s Blue Jays vs. Athletics matchup.
Blue Jays vs. Athletics prediction
Despite the total hitting 13 runs in Friday’s game, Saturday’s line is set at 10 runs. It has to do with the pitching matchup as Jacob Lopez is not struggling as badly as Luis Severino is.
Lopez has a 4.26 ERA through 50.2 innings. His last two starts haven’t been all that great, allowing four and three earned runs in just 4.1 and 3.1 innings. Before this, he pitched four straight games while allowing one earned run and pitched at least six innings in three of the outings.
There’s certainly some bright spots, but he’ll likely have trouble against the Blue Jays who are still on fire. They scored seven runs yesterday and should see a similar total again tonight.
Meanwhile, Toronto will start Gausman. The veteran pitcher holds a 4.13 ERA through 104.2 innings this season. It’s not his best year, but he’s still churned out solid starts. He’s also had his fair share of poor outings, too.
What version of Gausman and the Athletics offense shows up will play a major role in this game.
Blue Jays vs. Athletics pick, best bet
After a 13-run game on Friday, the over dropped from 11 to 10 runs. The pitching should improve on Saturday, but it’s not like Max Scherzer didn’t have a solid outing yesterday.
Scherzer allowed three runs in six innings pitched while striking out eight. All three runs came in the bottom of the sixth inning on two home runs. Even with just two slip-ups, Scherzer allowed three runs. Three more hits in the bottom of the ninth led to three more runs.
The Athletics offense can score in bunches, so even if the pitching does improve, it’ll have to shut the Athletics out completely. Ten runs is too low of a total considering how great the Blue Jays’ offense has been.
For some extra wiggle room, bettors can take an alternate total of 9.5 runs at -133 odds.