Major League Baseball has all 30 teams in action on Saturday’s schedule, and some top arms will be taking the mound in some of the later games. After taking a look at all the matchups, a few starting pitcher prop bets stand out as especially strong plays this Saturday based on form, matchup, splits and environments. Saturday’s top starting pitcher prop bets include plays from Garrett Crochet, Zack Wheeler and Jacob Lopez.
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Garrett Crochet over 7.5 strikeouts thrown (+110)
Crochet will take the mound on Saturday afternoon for the surging Red Sox and look to keep their streak going against the Rays.
Crochet hasn’t faced Tampa this season, but he has been lights out while going 9-4 with a 2.39 ERA, 2.50 FIP and 11.3 K/9 in his 19 starts this season. He has at least seven strikeouts in eight straight outings and has gone over this strikeout line in six of those eight starts while averaging 9.1 strikeouts per outing. In his last start, he only pitched five innings against the Nationals but still almost got to this line, finishing with seven strikeouts after three straight starts over this strikeout line.
The Rays rank near the middle of the pack in K% on the season and in the splits against lefties. Typically, lefties have been able to hold them in check with a .238 team average against southpaws like Crochet. If Crochet continues that trend on Saturday, he should get deep enough into the outing to rack up over this many strikeouts.
Crochet has been a true ace for the Red Sox this season, and I think he’ll get one more strong start on the board before the All-Star break.
Zack Wheeler under 1.5 runs allowed (+115)
I highlighted Wheeler in my top MLB DFS plays for tonight, and I love his matchup on the road at pitcher-friendly Petco.
Wheeler has come in under this run line in each of his last six starts and in nine of his last 10. He has an ERA of 2.17, but he’s been under 1.5 runs allowed more than that would indicate, since his ERA is inflated by two starts in which he gave up 11 runs to the Braves.
Wheeler faced the Padres on June 30 in Philly, and he held them scoreless for eight innings with just six hits while racking up 10 strikeouts. He was even better in his last outing, going the distance and allowing one run on one hit against the Reds.
The Padres have scored just 40 runs over the last two weeks (3.1 per game), the third-lowest mark in the majors. They did have four runs in each of their last two games, but Wheeler should be able to hold them in check on Saturday night.
Getting just about any prop that has hit in nine of a player’s last 10 games at plus-money is a great value, which is why I’m rolling with Wheeler in my starting pitcher prop bets this Saturday.
Jacob Lopez over 5.5 hits allowed (+110)
I actually like Lopez’s upside and have been on the positive side of his starting pitcher prop bets for several of his recent outings. I’m going against him here, though, partly because the Blue Jays have been so scalding hot over the last two weeks.
Toronto is hitting .275 as a team over the last two weeks with an average of 9.3 hits per game and .269 as a team over the past month with an average of 9.2 hits per game. Averaging over a hit per inning is impressive and should help the Blue Jays push Lopez over this hits allowed line on Saturday.
The Blue Jays are also one of the best-hitting teams in the majors against lefties, batting .266 against them in the split, the third-highest mark in the majors. They also had 12 hits in the series opener on Friday, helping them get the victory even though they didn’t hit a home run.
Lopez has not given up more than five hits in any of his last seven games, which is why this is at plus-money on Saturday. Still, he has given up five hits in each of his last two starts against the Giants and Rays while not getting even five innings. If he pitches five innings against the Jays, I think there’s a very good chance the Jays get six hits off him, so I like getting this prop at plus odds for the third of my three starting pitcher prop bets on Saturday.
