The Rangers are in Houston for a Texas-sized rivalry against the Astros before the All-Star break. The marquee matchup of the series is the two aces taking the mound on Saturday night as Jacob deGrom goes head-to-head with Framber Valdez. In this post, we’ll take a look at my top player prop for deGrom in this one.
On Friday, the Rangers took the first game of the series 7-3 and they have won three of their last four games, scoring at least seven runs in each of those. The Astros have dropped four straight after sweeping the Dodgers, but they still have a six-game lead in the AL West over the Mariners and are 8.5 games ahead of the Rangers.
In the big picture, deGrom’s Rangers are slight underdogs at +101 on the Moneyline with the run total set at 6.5 in what should be a low-scoring matchup.
H2H: Jacob deGrom over Framber Valdez most strikeouts thrown Moneyline (-105)
After multiple injuries and an extended recovery, deGrom has been excellent this season. He has thrown 106 1/3 innings and racked up 105 strikeouts. The veteran righty has a 25.7% K%, which is down from his career-highs but still a very solid strikeout rate. He has at least five strikeouts in six straight games, averaging 6.5 strikeouts per game over that stretch.
Valdez has also been very effective lately, but his strikeout numbers have been a little down. He had just three strikeouts in good starts against the A’s and Phillies, and he only has averaged 4.8 strikeouts per game over his last four outings.
Both starters have shown very high strikeout ceilings and Valdez had eight strikeouts against the Rangers earlier this season, while deGrom had seven against the Astros. Either pitcher can go off and run away with this prop, which is why it’s such a fun one at just about even money.
Recently, though, the Rangers’ lineup has been trending up while the Astros’ lineup has been struggling due to multiple injuries. Over the last two weeks, both teams have an identical 19.8% K% but the Rangers have cut theirs to 18.1% over the last week while the Astros’ has climbed to 25.8%.
In their last six games, the Astros have 59 strikeouts (9.8 per game), while the Rangers have just 48 in their last six games (8.0 per game). It’s not a huge edge, but it’s enough for me to give the nod to deGrom in this head-to-head prop that will be a very exciting way to track the action in Texas this Saturday night.
