The AL West’s most intense rivalry gets renewed on Friday. The Rangers, 46-48, are in desperate need of a series win before the All-Star break. The Astros, 55-38, have their eyes set on earning home field advantage in the American League. Which of these two will come out on top in this Lone Star Series showdown? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s matchup between the Rangers and Astros.
The Astros are favorites (-126) over the Rangers, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Rangers vs. Astros prediction, preview
In spite of preseason World Series expectations, the Rangers have been a massive disappointment. However, that’s primarily due to one of baseball’s lowest-scoring lineups. On the mound, Texas has held opponents to a league-best 3.59 runs per game. Jack Leiter hasn’t been perfect, but he has shown some flashes of greatness in this rotation. Through 15 starts, the 25-year-old has put up a 4.32 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 63 strikeouts. In his one meeting with Houston, the young righty tossed seven innings of three-run ball.
For the home team, it’ll be Lance McCullers Jr. on the hill. It’s been a rough 2025 campaign for the righty so far (5.82 ERA, 1.58 WHIP). However, he does have plenty of history in this spot. The former All-Star has notched a 3.52 ERA over 13 career meetings vs. the Rangers. That includes tossing four scoreless, four-hit innings back in May. It helps that Texas has the sixth-lowest OPS (.686) and batting average (.235) against right-handed pitching this season. Only four players in this lineup have recorded a wRC+ greater than 100. That doesn’t include former All-Stars Marcus Semien (94 wRC+) and Adolis Garcia (84 wRC+).
Even if McCullers struggles tonight, there’s a good chance he receives some run support. Over the past month, Houston has scored the second-most runs in baseball (148). During that time, five different hitters in this lineup have notched an on-base percentage above .350. That’s bad news for Leiter, who often struggles with his command. This season, the rookie has posted a lackluster 4.1 BB/9 ratio. Still, the Astros are only averaging the league’s sixth-fewest walks per game (2.91).
Rangers vs. Astros pick, best bet
Best Bet: Rangers ML (+104)
Few teams in baseball have been as hot as the Astros. However, during this week’s three-game sweep vs. the Guardians, Houston has looked vulnerable. In comparison, Texas’ offense is finally starting to wake up. Since June 10th, the Rangers have scored more runs than any other squad (156). With two unpredictable arms on the mound, I’ll back the road dogs at plus money.
