After suffering a brutal ten-inning loss in New York last night, the Mariners will hope to turn things around this weekend. That’s easier said than done when visiting the American League-leading Tigers. Detroit will make things even more difficult with ace Tarik Skubal taking the hill on Friday. Can Seattle earn a much-needed upset win? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s matchup between the Mariners and Tigers.
The Tigers are favorites (-201) over the Mariners, with the over/under set at seven runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Mariners vs. Tigers prediction, preview
Despite their series sweep this week vs. the Yankees, the Mariners are still firmly in contention for an American League playoff spot. Seattle has gotten to this point primarily due to its starting pitching. That includes veteran Luis Castillo, now in his fourth season with the M’s. While not the same All-Star arm he once was, the 32-year-old is still effective. Through 103.1 innings of work, the Dominican has notched a 3.31 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 87 strikeouts. When he last faced the Tigers in April, Castillo tossed seven innings of two-run ball.
As good as Seattle’s pitching has been, this isn’t an easy matchup. Detroit is averaging 4.98 runs per game, the sixth-highest total in baseball. Eight different regulars in this lineup have recorded a wRC+ of 100 or greater, including Riley Greene (138), Spencer Torkelson (131) and Gleyber Torres (129). However, the Tigers only have the tenth-highest OPS against right-handed pitching (.738) compared to the fourth-highest vs. lefties (.782). That’s not to say this offense can’t take advantage of righties, but it’s clear that they’d prefer southpaws.
Even if their bats struggle, the Tigers are set up nicely tonight with Tarik Skubal on the mound. The reigning American League Cy Young award winner hasn’t missed a beat in 2025. Over 116.0 innings, the left-hander has posted a 2.02 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 148 strikeouts. At this point, it’s safe to say that the 28-year-old is the best pitcher on Earth. The Mariners, despite their reputation as a pitching-first club, can rake. Seattle is averaging the league’s sixth-most runs per game on the road (5.00). It all starts with Cal Raleigh, leading the majors with 36 home runs. However, the backstop is joined by several other standout hitters, including Randy Arozarena (132 wRC+), J.P. Crawford (130 wRC+), and Jorge Polanco (120 wRC+). When Skubal last faced the Mariners, he surrendered three runs over 5.2 innings.
Mariners vs. Tigers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Mariners +1.5 (-109)
In spite of this week’s debacle in New York, the Mariners remain one of the Junior Circuit’s better squads. Facing Skubal on a losing streak is brutal, but Castillo is lethal as well. During his previous five outings, the righty owns a solid 3.30 ERA. In a crucial American League showdown, expect the Mariners to keep things close on Friday.
