It’s an elite pitching duel on Friday night in Minnesota as Paul Skenes and Joe Ryan take the mound. Skenes is considered one of the best pitchers in all of baseball despite being just 23 years old.
The right hander is going to his second All-Star Game in just his second MLB season while holding a sub-2.00 ERA in both years. He’ll face Ryan, who is having the best year of his career with a 2.76 ERA and first All-Star appearance.
The Twins have the better record and are at home, so they are -143 favorites on the moneyline. The Pirates are +117 and the game total is set at over/under 6.5 runs on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Friday’s Pirates vs. Twins matchup.
Pirates vs. Twins prediction
Don’t expect a ton of offense in this game, especially early on. Skenes and Ryan are two great pitchers heading to the All-Star Game for their respective leagues.
Skenes has a MLB-leading 1.94 ERA through 19 starts and 116 innings. He’s nearing his innings total from last year with a near-identical ERA, but his strikeouts are down from 11.5 per nine to 9.7 per nine.
The strikeouts aren’t a concern as they’re still at a high rate; he’s just as dominant as he was last year. Over his past two starts, he’s allowed zero earned runs, though he’s only pitched five innings in each outing.
Skenes can go deep into games, though, so the longer he’s in there, the more trouble Minnesota will have scoring. This is also something Pittsburgh has difficulty with. The Pirates rarely give Skenes much run support, which is reminiscent of Jacob deGrom’s 2018 and 2019 seasons with the Mets. Skenes is just 4-7, while deGrom was 10-9 and 11-8 in those seasons, winning NL Cy Young both years.
Between this and Ryan’s great 2025 campaign, the Pirates may not put many runs, if any at all. His 2.76 ERA is the lowest of his career, and he’s striking out 10 batters per nine, which is on par with his previous seasons.
Pirates vs. Twins pick, best bet
If it wasn’t obvious, the best bet is tonight’s under. Neither the Twins nor the Pirates are in a good position to score a ton of runs, which is why the over/under is set at 6.5 runs.
It’s a low total, but it should go under considering the pitching matchup. Fade the offenses in this matchup.