Major League Baseball has all 30 teams on the Friday night schedule headed into the final weekend before the All-Star break. The weather may not cooperate to get all the games in this evening, but it should be a fun night of baseball either way. Looking at all the options on the board, there are a few strong starting pitcher prop bets that stand out as strong plays in a loaded market. From all the different options available on the board this Friday, my top plays are from Chris Flexen, Chase Burns, and Ryne Nelson.
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Chris Flexen under 2.5 strikeouts thrown (+100)
The Cubs will move Flexen into the starting rotation for this outing against the Yankees. While working out of the bullpen, he has been pretty solid for Chicago, with a 0.83 ERA, 3.58 FIP, and 0.86 WHIP.
I still like him to be under three strikeouts for one of my top starting pitcher prop bets, though, since he only has 17 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings. He worked a season-high 3 2/3 innings in his most recent game, but he still only had two strikeouts against the Cardinals.
He has only gone over this total of strikeouts in one of his last 16 games, and he’ll have a tough test against the Yankees on Friday night. Even if he gets through three of four innings, which seems a best-case scenario for the Cubs, he could still end up under this strikeout total.
Chase Burns under 16.5 outs recored (-115)
Burns is making his fourth MLB start, and he’s in a good spot against the Rockies at home. The youngster has been impressive with 15 strikeouts in two of his three outings, although he was hit hard by the Red Sox in his other start.
Burns worked five innings in his debut with 81 pitches, only lasted 33 pitches and a third of an inning against the Red Sox, and then worked 4 2/3 in a nice bounceback outing his last time out. For the unmathematically inclined, that is 15, one and 14 outs recored–all of which are under this prop.
Burns has worked up to 91 pitches, so it isn’t his pitch count that will limit him against the Rockies, but the youngster hasn’t been extremely efficient. While Colorado does struggle with strikeouts, that could result in a higher pitch cout for Burns and another shorter outing.
If Burns gets through five strong innings, it’ll be a good outing for the rookie, but he could still end up short of this outs recorded prop, which seems generous at 16.5.
Ryne Nelson to record a win (+175)
I highlighted how solid Nelson has been in my top DFS value plays, and in these starting pitcher prop bets, I like him to get the win at almost 2:1 odds against the Angels on Friday. The Dbacks split a four-game set with the Padres but are just 3-6 in their last nine games, while the Angels are 2-5 in their last seven and also scuffling a little bit going into the break.
Nelson gives the Diamondbacks the advantage in this matchup, though, since he has allowed two runs or fewer in 13 of his last 14 games overall, and in eight of his last nine starts. In his last five games, he is 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and a sterling 0.78 WHIP while striking out 26 batters across 29 1/3 innings. He has three wins in those five starts.
On the other side, Tyler Anderson has given up at least three runs in five of his last seven outings while going 0-4.
With all “to record a win” props, there are many elements in play, including both teams’ bullpens and the offenses for each squad. Even with all those factors, I like Nelson’s current form enough to back him to get the victory on Friday.
