If the weather cooperates, we could end up with the rare all-play this Friday night since all 30 MLB teams are scheduled to be in action under the lights. While the weather looks a little iffy in a few spots, there are also a few great spots for hitting that set up some tasty spots for home run props. After looking at the home run props on the board for Friday, some of my favorite home run props are from Seiya Suzuki, Jackson Chourio and George Springer.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences—all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in well under half of their games, home run props are never “safe” picks, even if every single factor seems to indicate a long ball launch is imminent. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on due to their volatility.
What makes home run props exciting is that the long odds result in big returns when they do hit. It also makes sense to use these home run props with other picks in SGPs or parlay plays. I also like to play them at small money in round robins, boosting their upside even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters goes yard—get those QTs and RTs ready on X!
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Friday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Seiya Suzuki to record 1+ home runs (+425)
Suzuki and the Cubs are at homer-friendly Yankee Stadium on Friday night in what should be an awesome series before the All-Star break. In this matchup, he has surprisingly long odds to go yard in the first game of this set, since he’s already up to 25 long balls on the year, setting a new career best with plenty of games still to play.
Suzuki has been one of the best Cubs’ bats against lefties this season, hitting eight of his 25 homers on that side of the split, with a .289 batting average and .403 wOBA against southpaws. Suzuki has hit more of his homers on the road (14) than at home (11) as well, and has a .293 batting average and .395 wOBA away from Wrigley Field.
He gets a matchup with lefty Carlos Rodon on Friday night, who has been solid overall for the Yankees this season but has allowed 15 homers on the year, including seven in his last six starts, during which he has a 5.34 ERA and 5.71 FIP. Nine of the 15 homers he has allowed have come at home at Yankee Stadium as well, which is another split in Suzuki’s favor.
Suzuki has seven homers in his last 17 games with a .309 batting average, .443 wBOA and 54.2% hard-hit rate during that span. He didn’t homer in the team’s three-game stop in Minnesota, but I don’t expect him to be stuck on 25 homers after tonight’s matchup:
Jackson Chourio to record 1+ home runs (+425)
The Brew Crew is at home at American Family Field for their final series before the All-Star break, and they get a great matchup against Mitchell Parker to start the series on Friday night. Going with plays from Milwaukee is one way to avoid any Midwest weather issues, since the stadium has a retractable roof.
Since Parker is a lefty, Chourio stands out as a good option. The 21-year-old has 15 homers on the year, including three in his last 12 games, while hitting .304 with a .388 wOBA.
Chourio has hit five of his 15 homers this year (33%) against lefties in just 26% of his plate appearances on that side of the split. He also has more homers at home against lefties, with a .404 wOBA against southpaws in Milwaukee.
On the flip side, Parker has a 5.66 road ERA and 5.48 road FIP while giving up 10 of the 12 homers he has allowed this year to right-handed hitters. In his last eight starts, Parker is 1-6 and has given up 10 homers in just 42 frames.
The matchup against the struggling 25-year-old southpaw puts Chourio in a strong spot to deliver good value on his home run props this Friday.
George Springer to record 1+ home runs (+275)
For the last of my home run props, let’s look at one of the two late games in an especially homer-friendly environment in sunny Sacramento, where the weather should be warm with the wind blowing out as the Jays fly west and face the A’s.
They get a great matchup against Luis Severino, who has allowed 12 homers in 19 starts this season while going 2-10 with a 5.30 ERA. He has allowed 17 runs and five home runs over his last three starts and has been hit hard all year at Sutter Health Park. Severino has a 7.04 ERA and 1.17 HR/9 at home, where righties have a .328 batting average and .384 wOBA against him, along with a 1.44 HR/9.
Springer is a great righty bat to target against Severino, since the veteran has turned things on during Toronto’s recent climb to the top of the standings. Springer has six dingers in his last 14 starts, while going 16-for-55 (.418) with a 46.2% hard-hit rate and 13.5% barrel rate.
In his career against Severino, Springer is only 3-for-31 (.097), but two of those three hits were home runs. With how hot Springer has been and how hittable Severino has been in Sacramento, he’s a nice play at this price in what could quickly turn into a slugfest out West.
