Is it really the last Friday before the MLB All-Star break? That’s wild, man. It feels like only yesterday we were sweating Opening Day bets and now we’re here. Time flies and so forth.
Well, let’s not waste a moment. Here are a couple of my favorite bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s action on the diamond.
Chicago Cubs at New York Yankees
Yankees -1.5 (+104)
The Yankees are getting their mojo back, to steal a phrase from the indelible Austin Powers. After a stunning come-from-behind victory on Thursday night against the Mariners, New York has now won four contests in a row. The team is back to within two games of the lead in the AL East and all seems right in the Bronx. The cherry on top of the sundae? The Yankees will get to face Chris Flexen this evening.
Somehow, Flexen is 5-0 this season pitching out of the Cubs’ bullpen, yet he will make his first start in 2025 on Friday. While Flexen does possess a 0.83 ERA in his 32.2 innings of work, that ratio is greatly assisted by the right-hander’s .189 BABIP and 95.2% strand rate. To put it plainly: No one with a 13.9% strikeout rate is this good. We also have a 46-start sample from 2023 and 2024 to confirm this hypothesis. In that two-year span, Flexen pitched to a 5.84 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP as a starter. I’m sorry. I do not trust this man. Especially taking the mound at the always hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
However, I will endorse Carlos Rodon. It’s taken three years, but the left-hander is finally living up to his massive contract in New York, as the left-hander was named to the AL All-Star team as a replacement earlier this afternoon. Across 19 starts, Rodon has registered a 3.30 ERA and an even better 3.12 xERA. He was roughed up for six earned runs in his last outing against the Mets, yet I feel like Rodon will have a slightly easier time on Friday in a matchup with a Cubs lineup that is at its best versus RHPs. To wit, Chicago leads MLB with a 120 wRC+ when facing a righty. Rodon will have the platoon advantage.
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
Guardians ML (-126)
The Guardians’ offensive numbers over the past two weeks still look putrid, but the team is fresh on the heels of a sweep over the Astros in Houston. Vibes are good and Gavin Williams is set to take the mound on Friday. While that’s not always a sentence that inspires confidence in Cleveland fans, I’ll continue to bank on the RHP’s massive upside.
In his last appearance, Williams threw six scoreless inning against the mighty Tigers with eight strikeouts. The performance lowered the right-hander’s season-long ERA to 3.61. It was also the third time in Williams’ last seven starts that he’s thrown at least six shutout innings, a span of time where the 25-year-old is in possession of a 2.72 ERA and is holding opponents to a .190/.299/.317 slash line. The walk rate is always going to be a red flag, but Williams appears to be finding some consistency as 2025 rolls on.
It’s not like this is all that difficult a matchup, either. The White Sox sport an AL-worst .115 ISO over the past 14 days with an 87 wRC+. Jonathan Cannon owns a 5.09 ERA and a 5.16 FIP as a starter this season. If the Guardians can’t win this road game, they really should be looking to sell at the deadline.
