The Royals and Mets are starting their series in Kansas City on Friday night. Below, I break down my prediction and pick for the game.
Kodai Senga will be starting for the Mets, and Michael Wacha will take the mound for the Royals.
Royals vs. Mets prediction, preview
Kodai Senga is returning from the IL for the Mets in tonight’s game. He had to miss a few weeks with a hamstring injury, but the Mets are happy to get him back before the All-Star break. Senga was phenomenal for the Mets before his injury. Through 13 starts this season, he has a 1.47 ERA. Of pitchers who have thrown at least 70 innings this season, that is the best mark in the MLB. Opposing batters have a .195 batting average this season, and he should shut down Kansas City. The threat of Bobby Witt Jr. is the only thing to really worry about for Senga. As a team, the Royals rank 28th in runs scored and 25th in OPS. The biggest concern for the Mets is how deep Senga can go in his first start back. However, as long as he is out there, he should give them a few shutdown innings.
Michael Wacha has been a decent starter for the Royals this season. Wacha has a 3.83 ERA on the season, but he has been much better at home than on the road. In Kansas City, Wacha has a 2.81 ERA, compared to his 4.89 road ERA. The Mets’ offense has some very dangerous bats, but they have been up-and-down all season. In yesterday’s doubleheader against Baltimore, they combined for just four runs across the two games. Wacha will hope to keep them in check with his good home form. If he can do that, the Royals have a chance to win this game, because their bullpen has been great this season. Their 3.50 bullpen ERA is the third-best mark in the American League this season.
Royals vs. Mets pick, best bet
Senga has been excellent this season, but is likely only going to be able to pitch around five innings as he works his way back from the IL. As long as Bobby Witt Jr. doesn’t do something special, the Royals’ lineup won’t have an answer for Segna’s nasty stuff. Witt is 2/3 in his career against Senga, but both of those hits were singles. Senga would take that all day against this Royals’ lineup that lacks any other real threats.
If Wacha continues his trend of being a much better pitcher at home this season, he should keep the Mets in line. Some of the Mets’ best bats, mainly Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, have cooled off a bit over the past couple of weeks. Over the past two weeks, Alonso is batting .227 and Lindor is batting .234. Wacha should be able to keep the Mets’ lineup in check and hand it over to his bullpen, which has been great this season
It should be a low-scoring start to the game for the Royals and Mets. Senga can only pitch a few innings, but he should be fantastic in those innings. With Wacha’s home record this season, he should do a good job of limiting the Mets as well. That is why my best bet for this game is the first five innings under 4.5 runs.
