There are 11 MLB games on the early slate for Saturday, with the first starting at 1:05 p.m. EST. Here are three value picks for the slate. This article is written before the actual lineups come out, so keep track of updates throughout the day.
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SP Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins, $6,600
Rogers is having such an interesting season. He’s a lefty that averages 93.3 mph and is allowing a 53.2% hard hit rate. But the swinging strike rate is 12.3% and the barrel rate is only 5.2%. The ERA is 1.57 but he’s been very lucky with a .211 BABIP and 85.4% strand rate. That said, the FIP is still 2.81. It’s only been 28.2 innings, so this could all be small sample madness.
The matchup is a good one, as the Marlins are 29th in ISO and 21st in wOBA against left-handed pitching.
In five starts this season, Rogers has gone at least six innings in three and has not allowed an earned run in three of those contests. That’s translated to over 20 FPTS in three of those starts.
The regression fairies could sprinkle their dust on Saturday, but the price is more than palatable.
SP Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, $7,400
In three MLB seasons, Bibee has gotten worse in most statistical categories. The strikeout rate has gone down while the walk and home run rates have gone up. Both the ERA and FIP have increased every season as well.
Through 103.1 innings this season, the strikeout rate is 20.7% and he’s allowed 17 home runs. The 4.35 ERA is supported by the 4.59 FIP. Bibee has allowed more than three earned runs seven times with two of those at seven and six earned runs.
Here’s the thing, though.
The White Sox are 29th in ISO and dead-last in wOBA against right-handed pitching.
SP Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies, $7,800
Springer has a lot of things unappealing for Saturday. The game is in Great American Small Park. He doesn’t miss bats, walks a lot of batters, gets hit hard and both the ERA and FIP are above 4.0.
But the elixir for most pitchers has been facing the Rockies away from Coors Field. Colorado is 25th in home runs, 29th in runs, first in strikeouts and 29th in wOBA on the road. Against right-handed pitching, Colorado is first in strikeouts, 16th in ISO and 28th in wOBA.
