In any given season, most teams are either trying to compete for a championship or tanking to maximize their lottery odds. It seems like the Sacramento Kings, who have played in the NBA Play-In Tournament in each of the past two seasons, are doing neither.
This season, the Kings are projected to be around the fringes of the Play-In Tournament yet again, with a win total of 36.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, the 11th-highest in the ultra-stacked Western Conference.
If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, check out DKN‘s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
Sacramento Kings 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
After dealing De’Aaron Fox to the San Antonio Spurs at the 2025 trade deadline, the Kings filled their biggest hole this offseason by signing free agent point guard Dennis Schröder to a three-year, $45 million deal. It’ll offer a sense of stability to both the team and to Schröder, who’s been on seven different teams in the last four seasons. Last season, the German averaged 13.1 points, 5.4 assists, and 0.9 steals per game on 41-34-84 shooting splits between stints with the Brooklyn Nets, Golden State Warriors, and Detroit Pistons, including a solid postseason as the Pistons’ sixth man. He’ll likely reprise that role behind Malik Monk, although Monk’s name has been circling in trade rumors.
Otherwise, Sacramento’s core is relatively steady: Zach LaVine will start at shooting guard, DeMar DeRozan at small forward, Keegan Murray at power forward, and Domantas Sabonis at center. LaVine arrived from the Chicago Bulls in the Fox deal and was stellar on offense but poor on defense in his 32 games, averaging 22.4 points per game while nailing 44.6% of his three-point attempts, which ranked second league-wide. DeRozan is a midrange savant with decent passing and mediocre defense who will be 36 when the season starts, and Murray has seen his shooting regress without making defensive improvements. It’s not like Schröder is a defensive stalwart, either, although his passing is an upgrade over Monk’s.
The Kings’ chances will heavily hinge on Sabonis, who might be the most dominant big-man offensive initiator not named Nikola Jokić or Giannis Antetokounmpo. Along with Jokić and Antetokounmpo, he was one of only three players last season to play at least 65 games and average at least 15 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists per game. He has led the NBA in rebounds in each of the last three seasons and recorded a league-high 26 triple-doubles in 2023-24, and his shooting and defense have both made marginal year-over-year improvements. Although he’s become an average to above-average defender at this point in his career, he isn’t good enough to carry the team out of the bottom 10 on that side of the ball.
Sacramento Kings projected win total: Best bets, predictions
Sacramento Kings Under 36.5 (-115)
Fox left Sacramento with little choice by requesting to be traded and further hurt its leverage by pinpointing San Antonio, but the Kings are in an ugly position. They made a smart decision to retain Doug Christie as head coach after he went 27-24 as the interim boss, but trading backup center Jonas Valančiūnas in order to open up enough cap space for Schröder was a strange move, especially since third-year pro Keon Ellis, a defensive ace, made enough offensive strides to consider keeping in the starting lineup. If Sabonis misses any time or DeRozan exhibits any signs of decline, Sacramento’s Play-In dreams could die quickly.
