In 2024, Phoenix Suns governor Mat Ishbia controversially claimed that “26 of them [general managers] would trade their whole team for our whole team and our draft picks and everything as is” after his team was swept out of the NBA playoffs.
Now, with Kevin Durant off the roster and a win total of just 30.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, Ishbia’s dubious boast has backfired spectacularly just 13 months later.
If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, check out DKN‘s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
Phoenix Suns 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
Last night, guard Devin Booker opted to sign a two-year, $145 million extension with the only team he’s ever played for. For Booker, it was a defensible decision — the $72.5 million average annual value represents the highest mark in NBA history — but it keeps the team in basketball and financial purgatory for the foreseeable future. Booker’s career averages of 24.4 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game are rather impressive and he deserves the investment. But the Suns are well over the second apron for the second consecutive season, which comes with a massive luxury tax bill and, potentially, a future draft pick penalty. Waiving and stretching or buying out Bradley Beal is the only way for Phoenix to get under the luxury tax.
The Suns cannot afford to have Beal on the roster next season, and his no-trade clause and guaranteed supermax salary effectively forbid Phoenix from dumping him to another team, so he’s almost certain to eventually secure a buyout. Beyond Booker, the Suns’ second-best player is probably Jalen Green, a 23-year-old high-flying shooting guard who has averaged an inefficient, inconsistent 20.1 points per game in his first four seasons with the Houston Rockets. On the bright side, he’s been extremely durable, having not missed a game since February 26, 2023, but he isn’t a good defender or playmaker and doesn’t mesh well with Booker, who’s coming off the worst defensive season of his career.
Phoenix did make a few shrewd moves to solidify the center position, drafting South Sudan and Duke product Khaman Maluach with the 10th overall pick and dealing the 29th overall pick and a 2029 late first-round selection for Mark Williams, a third-year Charlotte Hornets big who averaged 15.3 points and 10.2 rebounds per game last season. Williams isn’t much of a defender and has a long injury history — which caused the Los Angeles Lakers to rescind their trade for him — but he should be a serviceable lob threat and pick-and-roll partner for Booker. Maluach won’t turn 19 until September 14 and demonstrated good rolling instincts and rim protection in 39 games with the Blue Devils, so his development is critical for the franchise’s future.
Phoenix Suns projected win total: Best bets, predictions
Phoenix Suns Under 30.5 (-110)
The Suns will get the lesser of their first-round pick or the Washington Wizards’, and with the young Wizards almost guaranteed to be awful, it might be worth tanking to secure a solid pick in the stacked 2026 draft class. 30 is an awfully low win total, but Phoenix won just 36 last season with Durant playing 62 games of All-NBA-caliber basketball and Booker playing 75 games, his most since 2016-17. The Suns finished with the 27th-ranked defense and traded for one of the worst rim protectors in the league and a $33 million traffic cone at shooting guard. Barring rapid development by Maluach, there might not be a single GM willing to trade places with Phoenix now.
