2025 has been a year of change in Memphis. Things got started when the Grizzlies fired head coach Taylor Jenkins in April, naming assistant Tuomas Iisalo as his replacement. As for the roster, guard Desmond Bane was traded to the Magic. In return, the front office got back Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, and four first-round picks. Cavaliers sixth man Ty Jerome was also signed to upgrade the team’s bench. Does this flurry of moves put Memphis in position to compete for an NBA title?
The Grizzlies have a projected win total of 40.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, ninth-highest in the Western Conference.
If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, check out DKN‘s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
Memphis Grizzlies 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
Although Bane is gone, the Grizzlies still have plenty of star power. Jaren Jackson Jr., arguably the team’s best player, inked a five-year, $240 million deal with the franchise in June. The rim protector, when healthy, is crucial for an otherwise lackluster defensive unit. Last season, JJJ averaged 22.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.5 blocks per game. He’s joined alongside Ja Morant, who remains one of the NBA’s most dynamic players. Unfortunately, off-court issues and frequent injuries have prevented the guard from elevating towards superstardom. Still, when active, the 25-year-old is a deadly scorer.
Last year, the trio of Jackson Jr., Morant and Bane were asked to do most of the heavy lifting. With the latter’s departure, things will be much different this season. For starters, Jenkins’ high-octane, free-flowing offense should look much different. A slower, more pick-and-roll heavy approach should lead to more consistency from Morant. The additions of Jerome, Caldwell-Pope and Anthony should bolster Memphis’ second unit.
Even if Jackson Jr. and Morant remain All-Stars, and not All-NBA caliber, there’s a decent chance the Grizzlies improve. Two members of the All-Rookie First Team, Zach Edey and Jaylen Wells, suited up for Memphis in 2024. While neither projects as a future face of the franchise, there’s still plenty of room for growth. The former, combined with re-signed big man Santi Aldama, gives the Grizz a fun duo down low. Wells, injured at the end of last season, was missed during the squad’s first round playoff exit. There’s an argument to be made that the two youngsters are the biggest key to Memphis avoiding the play-in.
Memphis Grizzlies projected win total: Best bets, predictions
Memphis Grizzlies over 40.5 wins (-120)
It’s difficult to find many pundits hyping up Memphis’ offseason. After all, losing a player of Bane’s caliber is nothing to sneeze at. Still, there’s nothing wrong with adding some depth to this roster. Improved health from Morant (50 games in 2024-25) could also go a long way. Given the amount of talent the Grizzlies have assembled, it’s difficult to imagine this group falling below .500.
